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OK0NAG > SOLAR 29.10.12 17:30l 115 Lines 4480 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU279
UGEOA 30512 21005 1132/ 9930/
11052 20052 30052
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 05 Oct 2012 until 07 Oct
2012
PREDICTIONS FOR 05 Oct 2012 10CM FLUX: 107 / AP: 004
PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Oct 2012 10CM FLUX: 104 / AP: 003
PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Oct 2012 10CM FLUX: 102 / AP: 006
COMMENT: Solar flaring activity is below the C-level during the last
two days. An isolated C-class flare on the Sun is, however, possible. A
partial halo CME (angular width around 180 degrees) was detected by
SOHO/LASCO this morning. The CME is first seen in the LASCO C2 field of
view at 00:24 UT after a 7-hour long data gap, so it is difficult to
determine the eruption time precisely. The CME is first seen in the
STEREO A COR2 field of view at 04:24 UT, also after a long data gap.
STEREO data show that the partial halo CME is frontsided. GOES detected
a long-duration B7.5 flare peaking at 07:32 UT (with a long rise time).
SDO/AIA images show corresponding post-eruption loops in the NOAA AR
1584, as well as post-eruption loops connecting NOAA ARs 1582 and 1584.
The CME speed measured in the LASCO data was around 550 km/s. The
arrival of the corresponding ICME at the Earth can be expected early on
October 9. A weak geomagnetic disturbance (up to K = 5) is possible.
Currently the Earth is inside a slow (around 300 km/s) solar wind flow
with average (around 5 nT) interplanetary magnetic field magnitude. We
expect quiet geomagnetic conditions in the coming hours.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 043, BASED ON 09 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 21005 1132/ 04///
1//// 21100 3001/ 4//// 8//// 9////
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania
NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
USSPS 32404 04084 05432 11016 35211 21305 14024 32912 4/802 17001
31823 1/802 19019 24918 21405
USSPS 21305 04154 05942 19017 35411 31305 23025 33212 41303 25001
32222 0/102 27019 24618 31309
USSPS 81202 05005 05732 26024 24020 31411 25001 32622 0/101 23020
33711 4/802 20018 35809 21303
UMAGF 30503 21005 1004/ 04067 1/004 21100 30001
UMAGF 31523 21005 ///// 0400/ 1/001 21101 30000
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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