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OK0NAG > SOLAR 29.10.12 17:30l 114 Lines 4381 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: GEOALERT SIDC
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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:Issued: 2012 Oct 08 1243 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU282
UGEOA 30512 21008 1241/ 9930/
11082 20082 30082
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 08 Oct 2012 until 10 Oct
2012
PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Oct 2012 10CM FLUX: 094 / AP: 033
PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Oct 2012 10CM FLUX: 092 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 10 Oct 2012 10CM FLUX: 092 / AP: 024
COMMENT: Solar activity has been active during the past 24 hours,
featuring an M flare and three C flares. The M flare was triggered by an
Active Region behind the East limb and had its peak value of M2.3 around
11:17 UT on October 8. More C flares are expected within the next 48
hours, with a chance of an M flare. ACE observed a shock in the solar
wind around 4:30 UT on October 8. The solar wind speed jumped from about
320 km/s to about 380 km/s, while the IMF jumped from 8 to 16 nT. This
shock signature is probably related to the CME from October 5. Active
(NOAA Kp = 4) and minor storm (NOAA Kp = 6) geomagnetic levels were
registered respectively during 3h-6h and 6h-12h on October 8. This
coincided with Bz values below -10 nT. At the time of this ursigram
(12:30 UT), the IMF has fallen down to 5 nT, so quiet (K Dourbes < 4)
geomagnetic conditions are expected for October 8 and 9. Quiet to active
(K Dourbes = 4) geomagnetic levels are possible on October 10, due to
the possible influence of a recurring coronal hole.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 034, BASED ON 14 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 21008 1241/ 07///
1//// 20980 3008/ 4//// 8//// 9////
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania
NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
USSPS 32404 07083 03832 14028 36813 4/801 19012 20921 21306 20012
27612 2/801
USSPS 21305 07156 03522 23010 37213 2/801 27011 20319 2/803 28005
27012 2/801
USSPS 81202 07072 03712 23026 36813 4/801 26013 21022 21305 27009
27513 2/801
USSPS 81202 08039 05822 27008 26315 21302 26015 30118 31510 28010
43208 01205 23006 37712 4/801
UMAGF 30503 21008 1004/ 07065 1/019 21101 33343
UMAGF 31523 21008 ///// 0700/ 1/008 21112 31134
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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