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OK0NAG > SOLAR 08.07.12 12:46l 128 Lines 5061 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU190
UGEOA 30512 20708 1029/ 9930/
12082 21082 38082
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 08 Jul 2012 until 10 Jul
2012
PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Jul 2012 10CM FLUX: 158 / AP: 017
PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Jul 2012 10CM FLUX: 155 / AP: 022
PREDICTIONS FOR 10 Jul 2012 10CM FLUX: 150 / AP: 012
COMMENT: NOAA AR 1515 (Cat 99) and NOAA AR 1520 (Cat 09-10) are
producing low M-class flares. Both regions have a beta-gamma magnetic
configuration and are likely to produce more M-flares in the coming
days, with a small possibility for another X-class flare. As NOAA AR
1515 is approaching the west limb, a strong flare in that region could
cause another proton event.
Geomagnetic conditions are expected to increase to active levels (K=4)
later today (linked to the CME on July 4) and tomorrow (possible
glancing blow from the CME associated to the X-flare on July 7). Around
09:30 UT, a jump in the solar wind parameters was observed which could
indicated the arrival of the ICME related to the M1.8 flare on July 4.
The interplanetary magnetic field strength jumped to 10 nT, but
currently the southward component of this field is only slightly
negative. The solar wind speed is rather low at 420 km/s.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 086, BASED ON 04 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 20708 1029/ 07///
10201 21580 3008/ 4//// 80210 91430
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania
NOAA NOTE
07 0818 0828 0839 S16E76 M1.0 09
1520 Location from Solarsoft
07 1057 1103 1107 S19W58 M2.6 SF 99
1515
END
UGEOR 30512 20708 1029/ 07/06 08110
10004 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50020 60005 44218 01000
10005 2//// 3//// 4321/ 50030 60004 13410 01000
10006 2//// 3//// 472// 50060 60003 24414 00000
10008 2//// 3//// 410// 50010 60001 25614 00000
10009 2//// 3//// 4552/ 50500 60032 26917 19210
10010 2//// 3//// 472// 50030 60001 26712 19210
10011 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50010 60003 32120 00000
10012 2//// 3//// 410// 50010 60001 24922 00000
10096 2//// 3//// 472// 50080 60001 46616 00000
10099 2//// 3//// 4552/ 50680 60050 35415 19410
99999
USSPS 32404 07097 12032 41014 47116 2/801 43068 35518 54514 45001
44619 0/102 46003 13510 21303 47007 24315 2/801 48017 36513 31303
49051 26215 47615 50001 26523 0/101
USSPS 21305 07189 12932 42011 47915 5/801 43020 37213 5/803 44078
36117 57518 46001 45219 0/102 47002 12811 01206 48007 23815 2/801
49082 26315 57517 50000 25823 0/101
USSPS 81202 08015 12732 49004 12409 21405 44018 47517 2/803 50008
23216 2/801 51105 25317 57630 52016 25513 31303 46052 36014 34513
45015 37011 31302
UMAGF 30503 20708 1004/ 07060 1/014 22212 33222
UMAGF 31523 20708 ///// 0700/ 1/008 22222 32232
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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