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OK0NAG > SOLAR 06.07.12 14:01l 142 Lines 5704 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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:Issued: 2012 Jul 06 1154 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU188
UGEOA 30512 20706 1132/ 9930/
12062 21062 30062
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 06 Jul 2012 until 08 Jul
2012
PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Jul 2012 10CM FLUX: 165 / AP: 012
PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Jul 2012 10CM FLUX: 167 / AP: 011
PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Jul 2012 10CM FLUX: 170 / AP: 021
COMMENT: Flaring activity continues with many flares at low M-level.
The biggest one was an M2.9 flare at 01:40 UT this morning. All M-flares
observed since yesterday originated in NOAA AR 1515 (Cat 99). This
region is likely to produce more M-flares, with a small possibility for
an X-flare. Flaring activity is also expected from NOAA AR 1513 (Cat 96)
and NOAA AR 1519 (Cat 06).
Active (K=4) geomagnetic conditions were observed in Dourbes yesterday
between 12 UT and 18 UT, probably related to the CMEs that were observed
from region 1515 earlier this week. The solar wind speed went up to 580
km/s, while a temperature decrease and and increase of the magnetic
field strength (up to 10 nT) were observed. We expect a return to quiet
conditions until late on july 7th when the arrival of a CME related to
the M1.8 flare that occurred in NOAA AR 1513 on July 4th can cause
active (K=4) conditions.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 084, BASED ON 09 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 20706 1132/ 05///
1//// 21652 3019/ 4//// 8//// 9////
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania
NOAA NOTE
05 1044 1048 1050 S19W30 M1.8 SN 68 99
1515
05 1139 1144 1149 S22E68 M6.1 SF 290 99
1515
05 1305 1318 1332 S16W43 M1.2 2N 99
1515
05 2009 2014 2028 S18W37 M1.6 150 99
1515 Location from SolarSoft
05 2137 2145 2151 S12W46 M1.6 1N 270 III/3
99 1515
06 0137 0140 0142 S18W41 M2.9 SN 130 99
1515
06 0244 0251 0258 S12W48 M1.0 III/1
99 1515 Location from SolarSoft
06 0817 0823 0827 M1.5 99
1515
END
UGEOR 30512 20706 1132/ 06/07 06109
10004 2//// 3//// 4321/ 50040 60004 42919 01000
10005 2//// 3//// 4321/ 50030 60003 14710 01000
10006 2//// 3//// 4321/ 50050 60003 25714 16000
10007 2//// 3//// 410// 50010 60002 44019 00000
10008 2//// 3//// 410// 50010 60001 26914 00000
10009 2//// 3//// 472// 50020 60001 28018 00000
10010 2//// 3//// 4422/ 50070 60004 28212 00000
10096 2//// 3//// 472// 50140 60003 45316 19300
10099 2//// 3//// 4552/ 50650 60045 34115 29710
99999
USSPS 32404 05073 10422 41026 44115 21304 43069 32618 57527 45008
41818 3/804 46008 16110 2/801 47012 27115 2/801 48014 33514 21407
USSPS 21305 05149 13932 42015 44515 21304 44067 33318 57563 45001
33521 0/103 46001 42020 01205 48008 26815 2/801 47002 15610 11303
USSPS 81202 05046 16942 44021 44116 21306 48003 41618 01205 45013
33314 21309 46065 32517 57586 50003 26818 1/801 49004 16009 01102
USSPS 31405 06071 15632 04004 42919 21304 05003 14710 21303 06005
25714 21303 07001 44019 0/102 08001 26914 0/101 09002 28018 2/901
10007 28212 24404 96014 45316 2/903 99065 34115 55545
UMAGF 30503 20706 1004/ 05069 1/026 22343 33323
UMAGF 31523 20706 ///// 0500/ 1/019 22214 35433
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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