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OK0NAG > SOLAR 05.07.12 14:41l 150 Lines 5973 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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:Issued: 2012 Jul 05 1239 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU187
UGEOA 30512 20705 1222/ 9930/
12052 20052 30052
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 05 Jul 2012 until 07 Jul
2012
PREDICTIONS FOR 05 Jul 2012 10CM FLUX: 165 / AP: 009
PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Jul 2012 10CM FLUX: 170 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Jul 2012 10CM FLUX: 172 / AP: 010
COMMENT: Solar activity remains at active levels: twelve M-flares were
observed since our last bulletin. The largest one was an M6.1 flare,
which occurred just before sending at 11:44 UT. All these M-flares were
produced by NOAA AR 1515 (Cat 99), except for the M1.8 flare at 16:39 UT
yesterday in NOAA AR 1513 (Cat 96). We expect more flaring at M-class
level from these regions and possibly also from NOAA AR 1519 (Cat 06)
that is turning over the east limb. There is a small chance for an
X-flare from region 1515. In case of such a big flare, a proton event is
possible as this region is moving towards the west solar limb.
All CMEs associated with the M-flares were directed towards the south,
except for the one associated with the M1.8 flare in NOAA AR 1513. Both
STEREO/COR2 instruments show an earth-directed limb CME for this event
(entering the COR2-B FOV at 17:24, and the COR2-A FOV at 18:39 after a
data gap). This event is hard to see in the SOHO/LASCO images. We
estimate the speed of this CME to lie around 470 km/s. This corresponds
to an arrival at earth late on July 7 or early on July 8, at which time
unsettled (K=3) to active (K=4) geomagnetic conditions are possible. For
now, we expect quiet geomagnetic conditions to continue.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 077, BASED ON 12 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 20705 1222/ 04///
10183 21632 3010/ 4//// 80208 91200
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania
NOAA NOTE
04 0947 0955 0957 S20W18 M5.3 2B 79 99
1515
04 1207 1224 1232 S17W29 M2.3 78 III/IV 99 1515
Location from Solar Monitor
04 1435 1440 1442 S18W18 M1.3 SN 99
1515
04 1633 1639 1648 N14W34 M1.8 2N 200 III/3,V/2,II/1
96 1513
04 2203 2209 2215 S16W24 M4.6 220 II/1,III/2
99 1515 Location from Solar Monitor
04 2347 2355 0002 S16W24 M1.2 IV/1
99 1515 Location from Solar Monitor
05 0105 0110 0115 S18W26 M2.4 3N 99
1515
05 0235 0242 0247 S18W27 M2.2 99
1515 Location from Solarsoft
05 0325 0336 0339 S18W29 M4.7 III/1
99 1515 Location from solarsoft
05 0649 0658 0705 S18W39 M1.1 1F 99
1515
05 0740 0745 0748 S18W30 M1.3 99
1515
END
UGEOR 30512 20705 1222/ 04/08 05108
10001 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50020 60005 41515 01000
10004 2//// 3//// 4321/ 50120 60017 40419 01000
10005 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50010 60004 17310 04000
10006 2//// 3//// 472// 50020 60001 28515 17200
10095 2//// 3//// 4321/ 50040 60003 37114 01000
10096 2//// 3//// 4341/ 50230 60015 42517 19300
10098 2//// 3//// 410// 50010 60003 32814 01000
10099 2//// 3//// 4652/ 50750 60055 31515 29710
99999
USSPS 32404 04067 11232 40012 37615 2/801 41018 42616 21410 43061
31417 27642 45007 40319 21407 46001 17509 0/102
USSPS 21305 04182 12042 47002 16809 0/102 48003 27914 0/101 44036
32107 57859 42019 43515 51305 46005 41118 51303
UMAGF 30503 20705 1004/ 04064 1/011 21221 31222
UMAGF 31523 20705 ///// 0400/ 1/010 23323 33122
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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