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OK0NAG > SOLAR 30.06.12 14:31l 124 Lines 4914 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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:Issued: 2012 Jun 30 1227 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU182
UGEOA 30512 20630 1222/ 9930/
11302 22302 30302
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 30 Jun 2012 until 02 Jul
2012
PREDICTIONS FOR 30 Jun 2012 10CM FLUX: 117 / AP: 028
PREDICTIONS FOR 01 Jul 2012 10CM FLUX: 117 / AP: 035
PREDICTIONS FOR 02 Jul 2012 10CM FLUX: 117 / AP: 010
COMMENT: Solar activity has returned to eruptive levels in the past 24
hours. NOAA AR 11512, 11514, 11515 and 11516 have each produced one C
flare within this period, while AR 11513 has released three C flares.
The brightest flare peaked around 08:30 UT on June 30 as C4.4 on the
GOES X ray flux scale, originating from AR 11514. More C flares are
expected within the next 48 hours with a slight chance for an M flare,
especially from NOAA AR 11513 and 11515.
The expected coronal hole high speed solar wind stream has arrived at
ACE in the early UT hours of June 30. Solar wind velocity has since
increased from about 400 km/s to a plateau of about 600 km/s. Meanwhile,
the Interplanetary Magnetic Field strength has fluctuated between 5 and
15 nT, with the Bz component sometimes reaching -10 nT for short
periods. The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels
(Dourbes K between 2 and 4; NOAA Kp between 1 and 4) during the past 24
hours. Due to the arrival of the high speed solar wind stream, active (K
Dourbes = 4) to minor storm (K Dourbes = 5) levels are expected for the
second part of June 30 and for July 1st. A return to quiet geomagnetic
levels is likely for July 2nd.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 070, BASED ON 19 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 20630 1222/ 29///
10135 21170 3007/ 4//// 80106 90640
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania
NOAA NOTE
29 0913 0920 0922 N17E37 M2.2 1B III/2
96 1513
END
UGEOR 30512 20630 1222/ 29/07 30106
10001 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50030 60011 15115 02000
10002 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50010 60003 45009 00000
10095 2//// 3//// 4422/ 50230 60015 30614 03000
10096 2//// 3//// 4422/ 50130 60015 13917 18100
10098 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50040 60015 23814 02000
10099 2//// 3//// 4422/ 50200 60016 25315 18100
99999
USSPS 32404 29080 09632 40030 30616 24416 41010 14017 21407 42005
23915 21411 43039 25317 21405 44005 15214 21407
USSPS 21305 29151 12442 41018 40816 24422 42011 13516 31413 43003
23616 04216 44031 24817 37413 45002 14814 01210
USSPS 81202 30028 09232 44011 13017 41405 47005 14014 21407 45008
22715 21411 46033 24316 44409 43019 31615 41410
UMAGF 30503 20630 1004/ 29061 1/015 21221 32233
UMAGF 31523 20630 ///// 2900/ 1/007 21122 32232
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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