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OK0NAG > SOLAR 01.06.12 11:33l 107 Lines 4017 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Monthly Ri Report
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Subject: Monthly Ri Report
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# MONTHLY REPORT ON THE INTERNATIONAL SUNSPOT NUMBER #
# from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
Provisional International monthly mean Sunspot Number for
May 2012 : 69.0 (sixty-nine point zero)
Maximum : 98 on 16 // Minimum : 52 on 30
Provisional daily International Sunspot Numbers for May 2012 :
1.. 69 6.. 62 11.. 79 16.. 98 21.. 79 26.. 57 31.. 64
2.. 68 7.. 57 12.. 72 17.. 79 22.. 57 27.. 59
3.. 69 8.. 61 13.. 75 18.. 73 23.. 55 28.. 78
4.. 62 9.. 65 14.. 85 19.. 78 24.. 62 29.. 56
5.. 63 10.. 69 15.. 87 20.. 83 25.. 67 30.. 52
68 cooperating stations on June 1, 09 UT
Predictions of the monthly smoothed Sunspot Number using the last
provisional value, calculated for November 2011 : 61.1 (+-5%)
SM CM SM CM SM CM
2011 Dec 65 63 2012 Jun 67 81 2012 Dec 79 93
2012 Jan 67 66 Jul 68 83 2013 Jan 81 93
Feb 61 69 Aug 70 85 Feb 83 94
Mar 62 72 Sep 72 87 Mar 85 93
Apr 63 74 Oct 74 88 Apr 85 92
May 65 78 Nov 76 91 May 85 91
SM : SIDC classical method : based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's
standard curves; the estimated error ranges from 7% (first month) to
35% (last month)
CM : Combined method : the combined method is a regression technique
coupling a dynamo-based estimator with Waldmeier's idea of standard
curves, due to K. Denkmayr.
ref. : K. Denkmayr, P. Cugnon, 1997 : "About Sunspot Number Medium-Term
Predictions", in "Solar-Terrestrial Prediction Workshop V", eds.
G. Heckman et al., Hiraiso Solar Terrestrial Research Center, Japan, 103
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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