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Date: Sun, 16 Dec 2007 23:08:13 -0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2007 Dec 16 2306 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
:::::::::: CORRECTED COPY ::::::::::
SDF Number 350 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Dec 2007
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 978 (S10W65) produced
a C1.2 flare at 0349Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low. A slight chance for a C-class flare remains.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to become unsettled to active by the afternoon of December
17th as a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream becomes
geoeffective. Isolated minor storm periods at mid latitudes, and
isolated major storms at high latitudes are possible. Conditions
are expected to remain at unsettled levels with isolated active
periods through 18 December, diminishing to unsettled levels by 19
December.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Dec-19 Dec
Class M 05/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Dec 082
Predicted 17 Dec-19 Dec 085/080/075
90 Day Mean 16 Dec 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Dec 002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Dec 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec 020/025-010/015-008/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Dec-19 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/20/15
Minor storm 20/15/10
Major-severe storm 10/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 35/30/20
Minor storm 25/25/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/05
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. For problems, contact:
mailto:pss.help@noaa.gov.
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