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OK0NAG > SOLAR 11.05.12 14:08l 119 Lines 4672 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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:Issued: 2012 May 11 1304 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU132
UGEOA 30512 20511 1213/ 9930/
12112 20112 30112
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 11 May 2012 until 13 May
2012
PREDICTIONS FOR 11 May 2012 10CM FLUX: 135 / AP: 010
PREDICTIONS FOR 12 May 2012 10CM FLUX: 139 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 13 May 2012 10CM FLUX: 140 / AP: 007
COMMENT: NOAA AR 11476 / CATANIA 25 is currently the dominant sunspot
group. It continues to grow in size and number of spots and is now
located on the central meridian, so future eruptions from this region
have a higher probability of producing energetic particle events and
earth-directed CMEs also become more probable. The other flare-active
region, NOAA 1471 / Catania 20 is now disappearing at the west limb. At
the same time, two other regions are appearing at the east limb, but
produce only relatively small flares so far.
NOAA AR 11476 / CATANIA 25 produced one more M-flare yesterday evening,
but since then its activity has been limited to small C-class flares.
One of these produced a type-II burst around 4 UT this morning, probably
associated to the C3.1 flare peaking at 03:42. It is thus possible that
a CME was ejected towards earth, but it is not yet visible in
coronographic images.
The solar wind speed is currently gradually declining. We expect quiet
geomagnetic conditions.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 079, BASED ON 10 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 20511 1213/ 10///
10126 21311 3012/ 4//// 80206 91030
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania
NOAA NOTE
10 2020 2026 2030 N12E12 M1.7 100 25
1476
END
UGEOR 30512 20511 1213/ 11/08 11106
10025 2//// 3//// 4652/ 50990 60069 10412 29611
10029 2//// 3//// 472// 50050 60002 23921 00000
10031 2//// 3//// 472// 50050 60001 24823 00000
10033 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50010 60004 30214 00000
10034 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50010 60003 21812 00000
10035 2//// 3//// 472// 50030 60001 17316 00000
99999
USSPS 32404 10063 08332 89006 38521 2/801 96097 11912 57639 97016
26124 21502 98001 21416 1/801
USSPS 81202 11055 09922 02104 10510 57653 04013 17316 2/801 03010
23921 21404 05005 25425 2/801
USSPS 31405 11081 14042 25099 10412 54669 29005 23921 2/902 31005
24823 2/901 33001 30214 01204 34001 21812 01203 35003 17316 2/901
UMAGF 30503 20511 1004/ 10069 1/020 22222 32432
UMAGF 31523 20511 ///// 1000/ 1/012 22322 33234
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium #
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