| |
OK0NAG > SOLAR 11.05.12 00:02l 300 Lines 10130 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
BID : A5MOK0NAG00P
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
Path: IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<IK6ZDE<OK0NAG
Sent: 120510/2201z @:OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU [TCP/IP BBS Praha Strahov] bcm2.01e-zia
X-Info: Prijato od 127.0.0.1 za pomoci SMTP gatewaye
X-barracuda-connect: sunkl.asu.cas.cz[147.231.106.1]
X-barracuda-apparent-source-ip: 147.231.106.1
Date: 10 May 2012 22:01:30 +0000
X-barracuda-spam-score: 1.34
X-asg-debug-id: 1336686994-03b34842c2f2bd0001-dKRjYV
To: solar@eu
X-originalarrivaltime: 10 May 2012 22:01:31.0046 (UTC) FILETIME=[74D47460:01CD2EF8]
From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
X-barracuda-spam-status: No, SCORE=1.34 using global scores of TAG_LEVEL=1000.0 QUARANTINE_LEVEL=1000.0 KILL_LEVEL=9.0 tests=HTML_MESSAGE, MIME_BASE64_TEXT, MIME_QP_LONG_LINE, MIME_QP_LONG_LINE_2
X-spam-flag: NO
X-spam-score: -0.157
X-barracuda-envelope-from: solar@sunkl.asu.cas.cz
X-barracuda-spam-report: Code version 3.2, rules version 3.2.2.96578Rule breakdown below pts rule name description---- ---------------------- --------------------------------------------------0.00 HTML_MESSAGE BODY: HTML included in message0.52 MIME_BASE64_TEXT RAW: Mes
sage text disguised using base64 encoding0.00 MIME_QP_LONG_LINE RAW: Quoted-printable line longer than 76 chars0.82 MIME_QP_LONG_LINE_2 RAW: Quoted-printable line longer than 76 chars
X-barracuda-url: http://147.231.105.98:8000/cgi-mod/mark.cgi
Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-barracuda-start-time: 1336686994
----boundary_589033_2ebb252d-77b4-4638-a506-c7a95a43cf0a
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 May 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 131 Issued at 2200Z on 10 May 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24
hours with multiple M-class solar flares observed. Region 1476
(N12E08) was responsible for almost all of the activity with 3
M-class events observed, the largest being a M5/2b event at
10/0418Z. Associated with these events, were discrete frequency
radio bursts, Tenflares, and even a Type IV radio sweep. Region 1476
has shown mixed growth and shear effects across the polarities as it
continues to evolve. A weak Earth directed CME was observed in
STEREO COR2 A and B imagery early in the period. Analysis and
current models show this CME joining the current coronal hole high
speed stream (CH HSS). Region 1477 (S22E47) was split into two
regions today as SDO magnetogram data indicated the leader and
follower sunspot groups were actually two magnetic bipoles. Leader
group is Region 1477 and follower group is now Region 1478 (S24E55).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels with a slight chance for X-class events for the next
three days (11 - 13 May) as Region 1476 continues to grow and
evolve.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past
24 hours with an isolated minor storm period observed at high
latitudes. Solar wind measurements, as observed by the ACE
spacecraft, showed a continued increase in solar wind speeds to
around 620 km/s, a drop off in solar wind density, and the total IMF
began to stabilize around 5 nT. These characteristics are indicative
of a CH HSS. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for active
periods for the next three days (11 - 13 May). The increased
activity is due to both the continued CH HSS effects and three weak,
slow moving CME's intertwined within.
III. Event Probabilities 11 May-13 May
Class M 75/75/75
Class X 20/20/20
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 May 131
Predicted 11 May-13 May 130/130/130
90 Day Mean 10 May 113
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 May 019/025
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 May 010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 May-13 May 012/012-010/012-006/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 May-13 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 40/40/30
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
----boundary_589033_2ebb252d-77b4-4638-a506-c7a95a43cf0a
Content-Type: text/html
Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64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=----boundary_589033_2ebb252d-77b4-4638-a506-c7a95a43cf0a--
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
