| |
OK0NAG > SOLAR 07.05.12 23:05l 286 Lines 9758 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
BID : 75MOK0NAG00P
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
Path: IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<OK0NAG
Sent: 120507/2204z @:OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU [TCP/IP BBS Praha Strahov] bcm2.01e-zia
X-Info: Prijato od 127.0.0.1 za pomoci SMTP gatewaye
X-barracuda-connect: sunkl.asu.cas.cz[147.231.106.1]
X-barracuda-apparent-source-ip: 147.231.106.1
Date: 7 May 2012 22:04:01 +0000
X-barracuda-spam-score: 1.34
X-asg-debug-id: 1336427920-03b34842c2aff10001-dKRjYV
To: solar@eu
X-originalarrivaltime: 07 May 2012 22:03:58.0578 (UTC) FILETIME=[4D86CD20:01CD2C9D]
From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
X-barracuda-spam-status: No, SCORE=1.34 using global scores of TAG_LEVEL=1000.0 QUARANTINE_LEVEL=1000.0 KILL_LEVEL=9.0 tests=BSF_SC5_SA210e, HTML_MESSAGE, MIME_BASE64_TEXT, MIME_QP_LONG_LINE, MIME_QP_LONG_LINE_2
X-spam-flag: NO
X-spam-score: -0.116
X-barracuda-envelope-from: solar@sunkl.asu.cas.cz
X-barracuda-spam-report: Code version 3.2, rules version 3.2.2.96291Rule breakdown below pts rule name description---- ---------------------- --------------------------------------------------0.00 HTML_MESSAGE BODY: HTML included in message0.52 MIME_BASE64_TEXT RAW: Mes
sage text disguised using base64 encoding0.00 MIME_QP_LONG_LINE RAW: Quoted-printable line longer than 76 chars0.82 MIME_QP_LONG_LINE_2 RAW: Quoted-printable line longer than 76 chars0.00 BSF_SC5_SA210e Custom Rule SA210e
X-barracuda-url: http://147.231.105.98:8000/cgi-mod/mark.cgi
Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-barracuda-start-time: 1336427920
----boundary_494186_eca80268-9fe4-4ca5-ba8e-d78eb192f0a9
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 May 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 128 Issued at 2200Z on 07 May 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past
24 hours. Even though Region 1476 (N10E48) is the largest, 810
Millionths, and most magnetically complex, Fkc/beta-gamma; today's
only M-class event came from the sunspot cluster Region 1470
(S15W57) and Region 1471 (S19W50). This sunspot complex produced an
M1/1n x-ray event at 07/1431Z. Multiple discrete radio frequency
bursts were associated with this event, as well as a 240 sfu
Tenflare and a Type IV radio sweep. These characteristics, as well
as COR2 imagery from the STEREO A spacecraft suggest an Earth
directed CME. Initial analysis suggests only a weak disturbance of
the Earths magnetic field. Earlier in the day around 07/0400Z,
another CME was observed in STEREO A imagery but after analysis, it
was determined to not have an Earth-directed component. Region 1476
continues to grow in size and magnetic complexity as it rotates
further onto the solar disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels for the next three days (08 - 10 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 May) as a
solar sector boundary crossing is expected, as well as possible
effects from a weak CME, observed leaving the solar disk on 05 May.
Quiet to unsettled with a chance for active levels are expected on
day two (09 May), as a coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) moves
into a geoeffective position. Quiet to active levels with a chance
for minor storm levels are expected on day three (10 May) as effect
from the CH HSS continue with the possible arrival of today's CME.
III. Event Probabilities 08 May-10 May
Class M 75/75/75
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 May 122
Predicted 08 May-10 May 120/120/120
90 Day Mean 07 May 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 May 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 May 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May 007/007-009/012-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 May-10 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/35/40
Minor storm 01/10/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/45/40
Minor storm 01/20/25
Major-severe storm 01/05/10
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
----boundary_494186_eca80268-9fe4-4ca5-ba8e-d78eb192f0a9
Content-Type: text/html
Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64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----boundary_494186_eca80268-9fe4-4ca5-ba8e-d78eb192f0a9--
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
