| |
OK0NAG > SOLAR 24.04.12 15:04l 149 Lines 5673 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
BID : O4MOK0NAG00C
Read: GUEST
Subj: GEOALERT SIDC
Path: IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<IK6ZDE<OK0NAG
Sent: 120424/1302z @:OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU [TCP/IP BBS Praha Strahov] bcm2.01e-zia
X-Info: Prijato od 127.0.0.1 za pomoci SMTP gatewaye
X-barracuda-connect: sunkl.asu.cas.cz[147.231.106.1]
X-barracuda-apparent-source-ip: 147.231.106.1
Date: Tue, 24 Apr 2012 13:01:54 GMT
Reply-to: sidctech@oma.be
X-barracuda-spam-score: 0.00
X-asg-debug-id: 1335272166-03b3482d69994d40001-dKRjYV
To: solar@eu
From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
X-barracuda-spam-status: No, SCORE=0.00 using global scores of TAG_LEVEL=1000.0 QUARANTINE_LEVEL=1000.0 KILL_LEVEL=9.0 tests=
X-spam-flag: NO
X-spam-score: -0.572
X-barracuda-envelope-from: solar@sunkl.asu.cas.cz
X-barracuda-spam-report: Code version 3.2, rules version 3.2.2.95031Rule breakdown below pts rule name description---- ---------------------- --------------------------------------------------
X-barracuda-url: http://147.231.105.98:8000/cgi-mod/mark.cgi
Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
X-asg-orig-subj: GEOALERT SIDC
Precedence: special-delivery
X-authentication-warning: titus.oma.be: sidc set sender to sidctech@oma.be using -f
X-barracuda-start-time: 1335272166
:Issued: 2012 Apr 24 1300 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/xut
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU115
UGEOA 30512 20424 1220/ 9930/
11242 20242 30242
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 24 Apr 2012 until 26 Apr
2012
PREDICTIONS FOR 24 Apr 2012 10CM FLUX: 142 / AP: 021
PREDICTIONS FOR 25 Apr 2012 10CM FLUX: 142 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 26 Apr 2012 10CM FLUX: 145 / AP: 013
COMMENT: Solar activity remains low with only small C-flares
originating mainly in NOAA AR 1465 and 1461 (Catania 10 and 12 resp.).
The C2.0 flare on April 23, peaking at 17:51 UT in NOAA AR 1461 was
associated with a CME and a radio burst. Since the source region was in
the center of the solar disk, this CME was likely to have an
earth-directed component, as confirmed by observations from both STEREO
spacecraft. We estimate the CME speed around 750 km/s, which corresponds
to an arrival at Earth early on April 26. A C3.7 flare occurred on the
east solar limb at 07:45 UT this morning. The radio observations from
Humain show an associated type II burst and the PROBA2/SWAP difference
movies reveal an EUV wave. We do not expect the associated CME (seen in
STEREO/COR2 and SOHO/LASCO data) to be geo-effective. We expect more
C-flares with a chance for an M-flare.
Geomagnetic conditions in Dourbes reached minor storm levels (K=5)
earlier this morning due to the arrival of the CME observed on April 19
which caused the Bz component of the magnetic field to turn strongly
negative (up to -15 nT) for an extended period. The Kp index reached a
maximum of 6 (major storm). Another shock was observed in the solar wind
data around 2:30 UT this morning, probably related to the arrival of a
high speed wind stream originating in a coronal hole that crossed the
central meridian on April 21. Currently the magnetic field value is
around 5nT with a positive north-south component. The solar wind speed
has increased to 510 km/s. We expect geomagnetic conditions to return to
quiet to unsettled levels (K max 3), until the arrival of yesterday's
CME early on April 26, when active conditions are possible.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 089, BASED ON 14 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 20424 1220/ 23///
10157 21420 3024/ 4//// 80105 91120
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania
NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
UGEOR 30512 20424 1220/ 24/06 24108
10001 2//// 3//// 4422/ 50120 60006 45717 00000
10002 2//// 3//// 4532/ 50240 60033 34114 00000
10006 2//// 3//// 472// 50040 60002 38724 00000
10010 2//// 3//// 4452/ 50340 60022 30516 16100
10011 2//// 3//// 4321/ 50100 60009 11112 01000
10012 2//// 3//// 410// 50010 60002 41111 15000
10013 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50020 60008 12010 01000
10014 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50010 60002 27917 00000
99999
USSPS 21305 23155 13832 85009 12212 31316 84028 20717 54423 78028
33613 34535 81030 37822 31403 80024 45017 31411
USSPS 81202 24008 15422 83040 33817 24539 84015 45015 24516 87020
37526 21302 91034 20219 44435 92019 11512 24412
USSPS 31405 24068 16442 01012 45717 24406 02024 34114 34533 06004
38724 2/902 10034 30516 54422 11010 11112 21309 12001 41111 0/102
13002 12010 01208 14001 27917 01202
UMAGF 30503 20424 1004/ 23060 1/051 23223 34465
UMAGF 31523 20424 ///// 2300/ 1/024 22432 33554
INDAA 20416
1/008 00500 20020 12012 01200 9/008
2/005 00501 60330 25024 04701 2/021
3/038 02502 50080 16012 00801 2/018
4/008 00800 20020 08008 02402 4/011
5/005 03303 30210 12008 00501 2/016
6/012 00500 50080 05012 04603 8/016
7/024 02401 20250 16012 00800 8/016
END
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium #
# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #
# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #
# #
# For more information, see http://sidc.be/products/xut. #
# Please do not reply directly to this message, but send comments #
# and suggestions to 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use #
# that address, use 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #
# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
