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OK0NAG > SOLAR 17.04.12 00:05l 224 Lines 7358 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Apr 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 107 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Apr 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate during the past 24 hours.
An M1 flare was observed from a region around the east limb at
16/1745Z. Region 1459 (S15E56) continued to grow and is now
considered an Fhi-beta type group. A filament erupted at
approximately 16/1300Z near S43E33. The associated CME is not
expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for M-class flares for the next three days
(17-19 April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels
throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (17-19 April).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Apr-19 Apr
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Apr 108
Predicted 17 Apr-19 Apr 110/115/115
90 Day Mean 16 Apr 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Apr 005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Apr 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Apr-19 Apr 004/005-004/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Apr-19 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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