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OK0NAG > SOLAR 28.03.12 14:43l 136 Lines 5319 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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:Issued: 2012 Mar 28 1237 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU088
UGEOA 30512 20328 1132/ 9930/
11282 21282 30282
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 28 Mar 2012 until 30 Mar
2012
PREDICTIONS FOR 28 Mar 2012 10CM FLUX: 110 / AP: 026
PREDICTIONS FOR 29 Mar 2012 10CM FLUX: 113 / AP: 022
PREDICTIONS FOR 30 Mar 2012 10CM FLUX: 113 / AP: 010
COMMENT: Solar activity has been quiet with no C-flares occurring
during the past 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to return to
eruptive levels, with risks of C flares from NOAA AR 11442, 11438, 11445
and 11429. An isolated M flare is possible. LASCO C2 observed a CME on
March 28, 01:25 UT. COR2 A and B imagery suggest that the Earth may
encounter a glancing blow from this event. The currently available data
don't yet allow an estimation of the speed of this CME.
The expected recurrent coronal hole high speed stream has arrived
around 0h UT on March 28. Solar wind speeds started rising from 340 km/s
and are still rising (currently about 460 km/s). The IMF rose to a peak
of 13 nT around 01:30 UT on March 28, and is currently about 4 nT. Bz
often reached periods of -10 nT between 21h on March 27 and 3h UT on
March 28. NOAA Kp values reached 4 from 21h on March 27 to 3h UT on
March 28, and was 3 during the rest of the past 24 hour period. Dourbes
K values were 3 or higher during the period, with values of 4 at 16-17h,
21-4 and 10h UT. Active conditions (K Dourbes = 4) are possible on the
rest of March 28 and March 29. Quiet conditions (K Dourbes < 4) are
expected on March 30.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 059, BASED ON 19 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 20328 1132/ 27///
10101 21060 3019/ 4//// 80107 90280
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania
NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
UGEOR 30512 20328 1132/ 28/08 28108
10077 2//// 3//// 4321/ 50020 60004 32613 02000
10078 2//// 3//// 4422/ 50070 60013 41712 03000
10079 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50010 60003 40612 00000
10080 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50010 60004 35624 01000
10082 2//// 3//// 472// 50220 60003 21522 02000
10083 2//// 3//// 4321/ 50040 60009 22723 00000
10084 2//// 3//// 4311/ 50020 60002 26316 00000
10085 2//// 3//// 410// 50010 60002 26918 00000
99999
USSPS 32404 26088 04322 56002 30114 2/801 59003 11013 21305 62021
24923 31607
USSPS 32404 27112 06832 56001 31714 2/801 59007 40512 27408 62019
23323 21504 64004 34825 11304 65001 27718 0/101
USSPS 21305 27185 07732 66004 40813 31312 58001 32015 01203 67002
35225 01204 64024 23124 41807 68001 27318 0/101
USSPS 81202 28024 07732 60009 41312 11409 66002 35624 01204 58003
32514 11406 65016 22523 21606 67002 26718 01202
USSPS 31405 28080 12042 77002 32613 21304 78007 41712 24413 79001
40612 01203 80001 35624 01204 82022 21522 2/903 83004 22723 22309
84002 26316 11302 85001 26918 0/102
UMAGF 30503 20328 1004/ 27066 1/032 22223 33453
UMAGF 31523 20328 ///// 2700/ 1/019 23223 33345
UCMEO 93001 20327 2000/ 20326 72312 80330 0822/ 081// 333// 41387
20326 62236 80255 ///// 11429 1112/ 99999 PLAIN UCMEO 93001 20327
2130/ 20327 60312 80818 3031/ 302// 223// 40861 20327 60248 80312
41421 11444 1212/ 99999 PLAIN
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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# Royal Observatory of Belgium #
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