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OK0NAG > SOLAR 27.03.12 14:43l 137 Lines 5055 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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:Issued: 2012 Mar 27 1237 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU087
UGEOA 30512 20327 1136/ 9930/
11272 21272 30272
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 27 Mar 2012 until 29 Mar
2012
PREDICTIONS FOR 27 Mar 2012 10CM FLUX: 101 / AP: 016
PREDICTIONS FOR 28 Mar 2012 10CM FLUX: 102 / AP: 024
PREDICTIONS FOR 29 Mar 2012 10CM FLUX: 107 / AP: 018
COMMENT: Solar activity has been at eruptive levels during the past 24
hours, with three C flares. Two of these flares were produced by NOAA AR
11444, and one was probably caused by the returning (X-flaring) NOAA AR
11429, currently about 30 degrees behind the East limb of the Sun. Solar
activity is expected to remain eruptive, with risks of C flares from
NOAA AR 11444, 11442, 11445 and 11429. An isolated M flare is possible.
A halo CME was observed by LASCO C2 on March 26, 23:12 UT, presumably
produced by AR 11429 and related to the C2.7 flare of March 26, 23:38
UT. The estimated speed from COR2 B imagery is 1150 km/s. We do not
expect this CME to be geo-effective, but it may impact STEREO B in the
(UT) night of March 28-29.
Solar wind speeds observed by ACE have been falling from about 380 to
340 km/s till 21h UT on March 26, while the IMF has been steady around
5
nT during this period. At 21h UT, the solar wind speed started rising
slowly up to 360 km/s, and the IMF doubled to about 10 nT. This could be
the first sign of the expected arrival of a recurrent coronal hole high
speed stream. The geomagnetic field has been quiet (both K Dourbes and
NOAA Kp ranged from 1 to 3), but is expected to reach active conditions
in the second part of March 27, and on March 28. Quiet conditions with
isolated active periods are expected on March 29.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 057, BASED ON 17 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 20327 1136/ 26///
10111 21020 3004/ 4//// 80408 90280
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania
NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
UGEOR 30512 20327 1136/ 27/08 27107
10077 2//// 3//// 472// 50010 60001 31313 00000
10078 2//// 3//// 4422/ 50050 60011 40412 03000
10079 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50010 60003 10712 00000
10080 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50020 60005 34324 03000
10082 2//// 3//// 472// 50140 60004 22822 01000
10083 2//// 3//// 4321/ 50040 60006 24023 00000
10084 2//// 3//// 410// 50010 60001 27817 00000
99999
USSPS 32404 26088 04322 56002 30114 2/801 61003 10613 21305 62021
24923 31607
USSPS 21305 26182 06442 58001 30814 0/101 66006 10513 01211 64027
24224 51608 67002 33924 01204
USSPS 81202 27006 08322 63010 10212 24314 60003 11112 01203 65020
24022 21509 58004 31015 2/301 64003 34125 01206
USSPS 31405 27080 10142 77001 31313 2/901 78005 40412 24411 79001
10712 01203 80002 34324 01205 82014 22822 2/904 83004 24023 22306
84001 27817 0/101
UMAGF 30503 20327 1004/ 26067 1/008 21111 30122
UMAGF 31523 20327 ///// 2600/ 1/004 21112 31102
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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