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OK0NAG > SOLAR 21.03.12 23:05l 230 Lines 7700 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Mar 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 081 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Mar 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z: Solar activity was low. There were four C-class flares
with three of these originating from the newly emerging Region 1440
(S26W24). The largest was a C2 flare that occurred at 1252Z.
Region 1440 showed development throughout the day and appears to
have a small magnetic delta configuration in the trailing portion of
the group. There was a back-sided full halo CME from old Region
1429 that was observed in LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 21/0736Z.
This CME is not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with an slight chance for an isolated M-flare from Region 1440.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (22-24 March).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Mar-24 Mar
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Mar 100
Predicted 22 Mar-24 Mar 095/090/090
90 Day Mean 21 Mar 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Mar 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Mar 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Mar-24 Mar 007/007-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Mar-24 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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