|
OK0NAG > SOLAR 17.03.12 00:03l 274 Lines 9236 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
BID : G3MOK0NAG00O
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
Path: IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<IK6ZDE<OK0NAG
Sent: 120316/2201z @:OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU [TCP/IP BBS Praha Strahov] bcm2.01e-zia
X-Info: Prijato od 127.0.0.1 za pomoci SMTP gatewaye
X-barracuda-connect: sunkl.asu.cas.cz[147.231.106.1]
X-barracuda-apparent-source-ip: 147.231.106.1
Date: 16 Mar 2012 22:01:12 +0000
X-barracuda-spam-score: 1.34
X-asg-debug-id: 1331935040-03b34827821763e0001-dKRjYV
To: solar@eu
X-originalarrivaltime: 16 Mar 2012 22:01:08.0024 (UTC) FILETIME=[4A635380:01CD03C0]
From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
X-barracuda-spam-status: No, SCORE=1.34 using global scores of TAG_LEVEL=1000.0 QUARANTINE_LEVEL=1000.0 KILL_LEVEL=9.0 tests=HTML_MESSAGE, MIME_BASE64_TEXT, MIME_QP_LONG_LINE, MIME_QP_LONG_LINE_2
X-spam-flag: NO
X-spam-score: -0.137
X-barracuda-envelope-from: solar@sunkl.asu.cas.cz
X-barracuda-spam-report: Code version 3.2, rules version 3.2.2.91411Rule breakdown below pts rule name description---- ---------------------- --------------------------------------------------0.00 HTML_MESSAGE BODY: HTML included in message0.52 MIME_BASE64_TEXT RAW: Mes
sage text disguised using base64 encoding0.00 MIME_QP_LONG_LINE RAW: Quoted-printable line longer than 76 chars0.82 MIME_QP_LONG_LINE_2 RAW: Quoted-printable line longer than 76 chars
X-barracuda-url: http://147.231.105.98:8000/cgi-mod/mark.cgi
Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-barracuda-start-time: 1331935040
----boundary_657414_a0d4833b-3ba4-4dd5-b044-3428feeb9861
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Mar 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 076 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1432 (N14W25) produced
three C1/Sf flares during the period. This region decreased in area
and spot count, ending the day as a Eso type group with a beta-gamma
configuration. New Region 1436 (S12E62), a simple Axx type group,
was numbered today. SDO/AIA 171 imagery showed a filament erupted
from the northwest limb around 18Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for another M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to active levels as
effects from yesterday's CME impact began to wane. Solar wind speed
at the ACE spacecraft remained high, averaging about 660 km/s
through the period while Bz ranged from +5 to -5 nT. Data suggests
we may already be under the influence of a coronal hole high speed
stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to begin at unsettled to active levels with minor to major
storm periods at high latitudes for Day 1 (17 Mar). Days 2 and 3
(18-19 Mar) will see a return to predominantly active levels with
minor storm periods possible as an earth-directed CME from 15 Mar
arrives mid to late on the 18th. A glancing blow from a 14 Mar CME
is expected to precede the CME by about 12 hours. Major to severe
storm levels will be possible at high latitudes. The geomagnetic
field should return to active to unsettled levels late on Day 3 (19
Mar) as effects begin to wane.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 20/15/15
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Mar 099
Predicted 17 Mar-19 Mar 105/105/105
90 Day Mean 16 Mar 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Mar 024/038
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Mar 014/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar 013/015-018/025-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/40/30
Minor storm 05/20/15
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/25/15
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
----boundary_657414_a0d4833b-3ba4-4dd5-b044-3428feeb9861
Content-Type: text/html
Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64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----boundary_657414_a0d4833b-3ba4-4dd5-b044-3428feeb9861--
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |