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OK0NAG > SOLAR 12.03.12 15:13l 129 Lines 4913 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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:Issued: 2012 Mar 12 1308 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU072
UGEOA 30512 20312 1303/ 9930/
12122 22122 37122
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 12 Mar 2012 until 14 Mar
2012
PREDICTIONS FOR 12 Mar 2012 10CM FLUX: 131 / AP: 032
PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Mar 2012 10CM FLUX: 130 / AP: 056
PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Mar 2012 10CM FLUX: 131 / AP: 008
COMMENT: The solar activity background has been at B level, with the
flaring activity on the C level during the past 24 hours. Catania
sunspot group 65 (NOAA AR 1429) maintains beta-gamma-delta configuration
of its photospheric magnetic field and it might produce another M-class
flare. Two new active regions with beta configuration appeared yesterday
at the east limb (NOAA AR 1433 and 1434). We expect flaring activity on
the C-level with a probability for an M-class flare in the following 48
hours. Another X-class flare remains possible but not probable.
At about 08:40 UT, ACE observations show the shock arrival due to the
halo CME from 09 March. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field is fluctuating with the intervals of strong negative values of
about - 20 nT. The last interval of negative Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field lasted about 2h, what is resulting in
ongoing strong geomagnetic storm. NOAA reported a Kp value of 6, while
local stations reported values of K=4,5 (Dourbes and Izmiran). The
proton event is still in progress. Due to the arrival of the shock wave
the solar wind speed was elevated to 570 km/s, and it is currently about
500 km/s. We expect the arrival of the ICME from March 10, early on
March 13, resulting in a moderate to strong (K = 6-7) geomagnetic storm.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 082, BASED ON 11 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 20312 1303/ 11///
1//// 21310 3010/ 4//// 8//// 9////
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania
NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
UGEOR 30512 20312 1303/ 08/10 12104
10062 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50010 60003 36527 00000
10063 2//// 3//// 4422/ 50200 60015 30915 02000
10064 2//// 3//// 4432/ 50160 60015 40619 15100
10065 2//// 3//// 4552/ 50830 60039 10917 18422
99999
USSPS 32404 11084 10322 43003 35115 21403 44053 42717 57522 46010
44520 21406 48005 14916 21405 49015 17212 21403 50007 26722 21404
USSPS 21305 11211 10342 47005 35815 21303 48080 43518 57520 49006
45221 21305 51008 14015 24310 52013 16312 41303 53011 25923 21402
USSPS 81202 11048 11722 51005 14816 21306 46005 34816 21306 48089
42718 57535 49008 44319 21310
UMAGF 30503 20312 1004/ 11068 1/020 21122 33432
UMAGF 31523 20312 ///// 1100/ 1/010 22112 32334
UCMEO 93001 20311 1730/ 20310 61805 82218 3091/ 308// 333// 41037
20310 61718 81836 42417 11429 1112/ 99999 PLAIN
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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