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OK0NAG > SOLAR 11.03.12 15:05l 121 Lines 4759 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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:Issued: 2012 Mar 11 1301 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU071
UGEOA 30512 20311 1237/ 9930/
12112 24112 37112
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 11 Mar 2012 until 13 Mar
2012
PREDICTIONS FOR 11 Mar 2012 10CM FLUX: 152 / AP: 051
PREDICTIONS FOR 12 Mar 2012 10CM FLUX: 150 / AP: 032
PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Mar 2012 10CM FLUX: 152 / AP: 058
COMMENT: Catania sunspot group 65 (NOAA AR 1429) maintains
beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field, and
two more groups (still unnumbered) appeared from behind the east limb.
We expect continuous flaring activity on the C-level, and another
M-class flare is probable, especially in Catania sunspot group 65 (NOAA
AR 1429). An X-class flare is possible, but unlikely. Catania sunspot
group 65 (NOAA AR 1429) produced an M8.4 flare peaking at 17:44 UT
yesterday. The flare was accompanied by coronal dimmings, an EIT wave
and a post-eruption arcade observed by SDO/AIA, and a full halo CME
first detected in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 18:00 UT.
STEREO/SECCHI COR2 data indicate that the bulk of the CME material is
directed northward of the ecliptic plane. A preliminary estimate of the
CME plane-of-the-sky speeds in the LASCO and COR2 A data gives values
around 900 and 800 km/s respectively. We expect the corresponding ICME
to arrive at the Earth early on March 13, resulting in a moderate to
strong (K = 6-7) geomagnetic storm. The Earth is currently inside a slow
(around 440 km/s) solar wind flow with weak to average (2-4 nT)
interplanetary magnetic field magnitude. We expect quiet geomagnetic
conditions in the next several hours. Later this evening (or tomorrow
morning) we expect a strong (K = 7 or higher) geomagnetic storm due to
the arrival of the magnetic cloud corresponding to the full halo CME on
March 9. The proton event is still going on, and we expect it to last
for at least another 12 hours.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 081, BASED ON 10 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 20311 1237/ 10///
1//// 21491 3024/ 4//// 8//// 9////
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania
NOAA NOTE
10 1715 1744 1830 N17W24 M8.4 460 IV/2
65 1429 Location taken from SolarSoft Events
END
UGEOR 30512 20311 1237/ 08/10 11104
10062 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50010 60003 36527 00000
10063 2//// 3//// 4422/ 50200 60015 30915 01000
10064 2//// 3//// 4432/ 50160 60015 40619 04100
10065 2//// 3//// 4552/ 50830 60039 10917 29522
99999
UMAGF 30503 20311 1004/ 10060 1/021 23223 34221
UMAGF 31523 20311 ///// 1000/ 1/024 25533 32442
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium #
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