| |
OK0NAG > SOLAR 11.03.12 00:10l 316 Lines 10772 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
BID : A3MOK0NAG00I
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
Path: IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<IK6ZDE<OK0NAG
Sent: 120310/2204z @:OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU [TCP/IP BBS Praha Strahov] bcm2.01e-zia
X-Info: Prijato od 127.0.0.1 za pomoci SMTP gatewaye
X-barracuda-connect: sunkl.asu.cas.cz[147.231.106.1]
X-barracuda-apparent-source-ip: 147.231.106.1
Date: 10 Mar 2012 22:04:15 +0000
X-barracuda-spam-score: 1.34
X-asg-debug-id: 1331416912-03b3482782ae5c0001-dKRjYV
To: solar@eu
X-originalarrivaltime: 10 Mar 2012 22:04:11.0734 (UTC) FILETIME=[B968BF60:01CCFF09]
From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
X-barracuda-spam-status: No, SCORE=1.34 using global scores of TAG_LEVEL=1000.0 QUARANTINE_LEVEL=1000.0 KILL_LEVEL=9.0 tests=HTML_MESSAGE, MIME_BASE64_TEXT, MIME_QP_LONG_LINE, MIME_QP_LONG_LINE_2
X-spam-flag: NO
X-spam-score: -0.14
X-barracuda-envelope-from: solar@sunkl.asu.cas.cz
X-barracuda-spam-report: Code version 3.2, rules version 3.2.2.90844Rule breakdown below pts rule name description---- ---------------------- --------------------------------------------------0.00 HTML_MESSAGE BODY: HTML included in message0.52 MIME_BASE64_TEXT RAW: Mes
sage text disguised using base64 encoding0.00 MIME_QP_LONG_LINE RAW: Quoted-printable line longer than 76 chars0.82 MIME_QP_LONG_LINE_2 RAW: Quoted-printable line longer than 76 chars
X-barracuda-url: http://147.231.105.98:8000/cgi-mod/mark.cgi
Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-barracuda-start-time: 1331416912
----boundary_397513_863d9be0-2352-427e-b237-4761c93e232f
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Mar 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 070 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Mar 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was high. Region 1430 (N21W42) produced
a C8 flare at 10/1552Z and Region 1429 (N18W26) produced a long
duration M8 flare at 10/1744Z with an associated Tenflare (459 sfu)
and a Type IV radio sweep. Both flares had associated CMEs. The
first CME appeared in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 10/1624Z with
the majority of the ejecta off the NW limb. The second CME,
associated with the M8 flare, first appeared in C2 imagery at
10/1800Z. Further analysis will be done as imagery becomes
available, however initial analysis indicated the event produced a
full-halo CME with an estimated plane-of-sky speed between 1200 -
1400 km/s. Region 1429 remained a large Ekc spot class with a
Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic class. A new region appeared on the ENE
limb near Region 1432 (N16E52). Close proximity to the limb made a
detailed analysis of this new region difficult.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels for the forecast period (11 - 13 March).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels with periods
of major storming at higher latitudes between 10/0600 - 1200Z.
Activity was due to the continued effects of the 07 March CME.
Solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft has gradually decreased from
approximately 580 km/s to near 450 km/s. The greater than 10 MeV
and greater than 100 Mev proton events are on going. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels
throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled early on day 1 (11 March) until
the arrival of the 09 March CME followed by today's CME associated
with the M8 flare. Models show an arrival of the first CME early to
midday on 11 March which is expected to cause minor to major storm
conditions with isolated severe storm periods likely. Initial
estimates on the second CME indicate an arrival late on day 1.
Activity is expected to continue into day 2 (12 March) with minor to
major storm conditions with isolated severe storm periods possible.
Conditions are expected to decrease to unsettled to active levels by
day 3 (13 March).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar
Class M 80/80/80
Class X 40/40/40
Proton 99/99/60
PCAF red
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Mar 149
Predicted 11 Mar-13 Mar 155/155/155
90 Day Mean 10 Mar 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Mar 057/094
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Mar 013/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Mar-13 Mar 047/085-024/040-007/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/15
Minor storm 35/30/05
Major-severe storm 35/25/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/15/25
Minor storm 15/25/15
Major-severe storm 75/55/10
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
----boundary_397513_863d9be0-2352-427e-b237-4761c93e232f
Content-Type: text/html
Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64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----boundary_397513_863d9be0-2352-427e-b237-4761c93e232f--
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
