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OK0NAG > SOLAR 10.03.12 15:14l 130 Lines 5087 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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:Issued: 2012 Mar 10 1309 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU070
UGEOA 30512 20310 1226/ 9930/
12102 24102 37102
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 10 Mar 2012 until 12 Mar
2012
PREDICTIONS FOR 10 Mar 2012 10CM FLUX: 149 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 11 Mar 2012 10CM FLUX: 152 / AP: 052
PREDICTIONS FOR 12 Mar 2012 10CM FLUX: 154 / AP: 031
COMMENT: All five sunspot groups on the solar disk produced C-class
flares in the past 24 hours. The strongest flare during this interval
was the C9.7 flare peaking at 20:25 UT yesterday in the NOAA AR 1432 (no
Catania number yet) at N17E79. NOAA AR 1429 (Catania number 65)
continues to decay, although still maintaining beta-gamma-delta
configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. Another active region
(unnumbered) just appeared from behind the east limb. STEREO/SECCHI EUVI
data showed several eruptions from this region when it was behind the
limb (as seen from the Earth). We expect continuing flare activity on
the C-level, with an M-flare very probable, mainly from the NOAA ARs
1429 and 1432. Chances for an X-class flare are low. A possible partial
halo CME first appearing in the LASCO C2 field of view above the south
limb at 08:29 UT yesterday is a backside CME according to the
STEREO/SECCHI COR2 data. The Earth is currently inside the solar wind
flow with intermediate speed (around 520 km/s) and average
interplanetary magnetic field magnitude (around 4 nT). The ICME seems to
be over, the geomagnetic conditions became quiet and are expected to
remain so in the coming hours. Tomorrow evening (or in the morning of
March 12) we expect a strong (K = 7 or higher) geomagnetic storm due to
the arrival of the magnetic cloud corresponding to the full halo CME on
March 9. The proton flux at energies more than 10 MeV is currently above
10 pfu level as the proton event is still going on. We expect it to last
for at least another 12 hours.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 068, BASED ON 04 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 20310 1226/ 09///
1//// 21460 3061/ 4//// 8//// 9////
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania
NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
UGEOR 30512 20310 1226/ 08/10 10104
10062 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50010 60003 36527 15100
10063 2//// 3//// 4422/ 50200 60015 30915 15100
10064 2//// 3//// 4432/ 50160 60015 40619 04000
10065 2//// 3//// 4552/ 50830 60039 10917 19421
99999
USSPS 32404 08125 08322 43018 31217 31408 44095 10918 57525 46023
40622 31408 47002 36928 11302
USSPS 32404 09065 09422 43011 32217 21412 44077 40218 57521 46011
41820 31409 47003 37529 1/801 48009 17918 2/801
UMAGF 30503 20309 1004/ 08061 1/050 22444 34445
UMAGF 30503 20310 1004/ 09063 1/078 27554 34244
UMAGF 31523 20309 ///// 0800/ 1/028 22135 35445
UMAGF 31523 20310 ///// 0900/ 1/061 24676 36542
UCMEO 93001 20309 1730/ 20309 60414 90835 2921/ 291// 333// 20863
20309 60327 80433 40317 11429 1112/ 99999 PLAIN
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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