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OK0NAG > SOLAR 09.03.12 15:51l 135 Lines 5166 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU069
UGEOA 30512 20309 1316/ 9930/
12092 23092 37092
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 09 Mar 2012 until 11 Mar
2012
PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Mar 2012 10CM FLUX: 142 / AP: 060
PREDICTIONS FOR 10 Mar 2012 10CM FLUX: 144 / AP: 023
PREDICTIONS FOR 11 Mar 2012 10CM FLUX: 142 / AP: 044
COMMENT: Catania sunspot group 65 (NOAA AR 1429) started to decay,
although it still maintains the beta-gamma-delta configuration of its
photospheric magnetic field. We expect M-class flares from this active
region, although an X-class flare is still not excluded. An unnumbered
sunspot group appeared from behind the north-east limb and produced a
CME (not a halo) this morning. C- and even M-class flares are possible
in this active region. SOHO/LASCO detected a full halo CME in
association with the M6.3 flare in Catania sunspot group 65 (NOAA AR
1429) this morning. The CME first appeared in the LASCO C2 field of view
at 04:14 UT and had a speed around 750 km/s. We expect the CME arrival
at the Earth late on March 11 - early on March 12. An evaluation of the
possible erupting flux rope orientation on the basis of HMI photospheric
magnetograms and AIA images of the post-eruption arcade gives the
south-east-north (SEN, left-handed) configuration. Due to the position
of the CME source region close to the solar central meridian, we expect
a nearly central encounter of the resulting ICME, which will probably be
a magnetic cloud with leading southward field. A strong geomagnetic
storm (K = 7 or higher) is probable. The Earth is now inside the
post-shock solar wind flow generated by the ICME corresponding to the
halo CME erupted on March 7. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) is
currently southward, resulting in a severe magnetic storm (K = 7
reported by NOAA). Although the IMF magnitude is not very high (around
10 nT), it was strongly fluctuating in the past 24 hours, so a further
development of the storm is not excluded. The solar wind speed measured
by SOHO/CELIAS is currently high (around 900 km/s) and CELIAS data
exhibit two important discontinuities in the solar wind speed today (at
03:44 UT and 08:18 UT). Neither of these discontinuities seems to
correspond to a sudden increase of the IMF magnitude measured by ACE, so
they do not appear to be shock waves. The SEP event is still on-going,
with proton fluxes a
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 070, BASED ON 15 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 20309 1316/ 08///
10112 21400 3//// 4//// 80004 91200
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania
NOAA NOTE
09 0322 0353 0418 N15W03 M6.3 III/1,V/2,II/2
65 1429 Location taken from SolarSoft Events
END
UGEOR 30512 20309 1316/ 08/10 09104
10062 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50010 60003 36527 01000
10063 2//// 3//// 4422/ 50200 60015 30915 15100
10064 2//// 3//// 4432/ 50160 60015 40619 04100
10065 2//// 3//// 4552/ 50830 60039 10917 39745
99999
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