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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: Fri, 16 May 2008 22:01:43 -0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2008 May 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 137 Issued at 2200Z on 16 May 2008
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. New regions 994
(S11E04), 995 (N12E22), and 996 (N13E59) were numbered today.
Regions 994 and 995 are simple A-type groups with a single spot.
Region 996 is a B-type group with a beta magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels for days one and two of the forecast
period (17 and 18 May). Geomagnetic activity is expected to
increase to quiet to unsettled levels with a slight chance for
active conditions on day three (19 May), as a coronal hole high
speed stream rotates into a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 17 May-19 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 May 072
Predicted 17 May-19 May 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 16 May 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 May 002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 May 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May 005/005-005/005-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 May-19 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/20
Minor storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/25
Minor storm 05/05/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. For problems, contact:
mailto:pss.help@noaa.gov.
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