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OK0NAG > SOLAR 07.03.12 15:09l 148 Lines 6105 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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:Issued: 2012 Mar 07 1304 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU067
UGEOA 30512 20307 1207/ 9930/
14072 24072 37072
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 07 Mar 2012 until 09 Mar
2012
PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Mar 2012 10CM FLUX: 143 / AP: 030
PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Mar 2012 10CM FLUX: 148 / AP: 064
PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Mar 2012 10CM FLUX: 153 / AP: 030
COMMENT: Catania sunspot group 65 (NOAA AR 1429) continues to grow and
now has beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic
field. Another major flare from this active region is possible, most
probably not earlier than tomorrow. Due to the Catania sunspot group 65
(NOAA AR 1429) approach to the solar central meridian, another
Earth-directed CME and SEP release will be probable. The X5.4 flare this
morning was accompanied by a full halo CME first appearing in the LASCO
C2 field of view at 00:24 UT. The CME speed was around 2300 km/s. We
expect the arrival of the corresponding ICME at the Earth tomorrow, most
probably in the evening. At least a strong (K = 7) geomagnetic storm
will be possible. The SEP flux continues to increase, with the proton
flux at energies above 100 MeV crossing the SEP event threshold (10 pfu)
around 10 UT today. We expect the proton flux to remain elevated at
least until the arrival of the CME-driven shock tomorrow evening and
possibly after that. SOHO/CELIAS and ACE confirm the detection of the
interplanetary shock wave that arrived at 03:35 UT today. This shock
wave was most probably associated with the halo CME erupted on March 4.
The plasma measurements by ACE are now corrupted by the on-going major
SEP event. The Earth is currently inside the post-shock solar wind flow
with moderate speed (around 420 km/s) and elevated (around 15 nT)
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude. The north-south IMF
component Bz is currently fluctuating near zero, but had extended
intervals of negative values in the recent hours. A geomagnetic storm
resulted despite the moderate solar wind speeds: K = 6 was reported by
NOAA and K = 5 was reported by Dourbes. Another shock may arrive this
evening (associated with the halo CME on March 5), possibly resulting in
another geomagnetic storm.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 079, BASED ON 10 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 20307 1207/ 06///
10134 21380 3012/ 4//// 80006 91170
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania
NOAA NOTE
06 1223 1241 1254 N18E36 M2.1 1N 65
1429
06 2104 2111 2114 M1.3 65
1429 Flare region derived from the SDO/EVE SAM data.
06 2249 2253 2311 M1.0 65
1429
07 0002 0024 0040 N17E27 X5.4 3B 7200 IV/1,II/2,V/2
65 1429
07 0105 0114 0123 X1.3 II/2
65 1429 Location reported by NOAA seems incorrect
END
UGEOR 30512 20307 1207/ 06/08 07106
10052 2//// 3//// 472// 50030 60001 47817 00000
10061 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50010 60002 45030 00000
10062 2//// 3//// 4422/ 50040 60007 33827 00000
10063 2//// 3//// 4422/ 50210 60021 21715 02000
10064 2//// 3//// 4422/ 50060 60008 11919 17200
10065 2//// 3//// 4452/ 50820 60035 13618 49855
99999
USSPS 32404 06072 09922 36003 48018 2/801 43028 21817 37417 44101
14117 57421 46007 12319 24406 47003 33928 11404
USSPS 21305 06184 10442 47019 21316 37418 48140 13317 57528 49013
11720 37415 50002 34627 01203
USSPS 81202 06030 11722 39008 47514 2/801 49014 12520 21412 48096
14018 57427 46028 22217 34418 50005 33530 01209
USSPS 81202 07135 09722 49015 11220 24319 48121 12717 57429 46030
20818 24419
UMAGF 30503 20307 1004/ 06068 1/019 22132 32333
UMAGF 31523 20307 ///// 0600/ 1/012 23221 33234
UCMEO 93001 20306 1930/ 20304 60648 81042 2422/ 043// 113// 40526
20304 60546 80646 ///// 11422 1112/ 99999 PLAIN
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