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OK0NAG > SOLAR 23.02.12 23:04l 239 Lines 7993 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Feb 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 054 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Feb 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1422 (N15W52)
showed decay in its trailing spots. A new region appeared on the NE
limb and was numbered Region 1423 (N18E70). Two CMEs were observed
overnight; the first off the North limb, observed in LASCO C2
imagery beginning at approximately 23/0148Z and the second beginning
at 23/0824Z off the NW limb. The second CME was associated with a
filament eruption on the NW limb first seen in SDO/AIA 193 imagery
at 23/0746Z. None of the CMEs are expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels with a chance for a C-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed at the ACE
spacecraft decreased from approximately 530 km/s to 440 km/s while
the Bz component of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field did not vary
much beyond +/- 4 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at mostly quiet conditions for the forecast
period (24 - 26 February).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Feb 103
Predicted 24 Feb-26 Feb 105/105/100
90 Day Mean 23 Feb 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Feb 009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Feb 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Feb-26 Feb 004/005-004/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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