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OK0NAG > SOLAR 22.02.12 23:08l 243 Lines 8114 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Feb 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 053 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Feb 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. There were two B-class
flares during the last 24 hours. The largest of these was a B5 at
1937Z from Region 1422 (N15W38). Region 1422 has shown steady decay
during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low. There is a chance, however, for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. A weak
shock was observed at the ACE spacecraft at 22/0120Z and was
followed by a sudden impulse of 20 nT at 22/0223Z at the Boulder
magnetometer. Somewhat later in the day a solar sector boundary
crossing was observed (22/0815Z) and was followed by a marked
increase in solar wind velocity, indicative of the onset of a high
speed stream from a coronal hole.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for isolated active
periods during the next 24 hours as effects from the high speed
stream persist. Predominantly quiet levels are expected for the
second and third days (24-25 February).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Feb 104
Predicted 23 Feb-25 Feb 105/105/100
90 Day Mean 22 Feb 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Feb 004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Feb 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Feb-25 Feb 007/008-007/005-007/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/05/01
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor storm 35/15/10
Major-severe storm 25/05/05
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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