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OK0NAG > SOLAR    11.02.12 15:04l 114 Lines 4248 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: GEOALERT SIDC
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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:Issued: 2012 Feb 11 1258 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/xut
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)                       #

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#


GEOALERT BRU042
UGEOA 30512 20211 1236/ 9930/
11112 20112 30112
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 11 Feb 2012 until 13 Feb 
2012
PREDICTIONS FOR 11 Feb 2012  10CM FLUX: 111 / AP: 006
PREDICTIONS FOR 12 Feb 2012  10CM FLUX: 113 / AP: 014
PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Feb 2012  10CM FLUX: 116 / AP: 010
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low, new AR 1417 produced a C7.9 flare

with peak at 10:04 UT. This AR can produce more C-class flares and it
has lower chances of M-class flares. NOAA AR 1416 (Catania 38) has
increased in size and turned into a beta gamma magnetic configuration,

it has potential for M-class flares. There were two halo CMEs yesterday.

The first one, first seen at 13:48 UT, originating from a filament
eruption in the northwest limb is most likely not going to be
geoeffective, although a shock from this CME may hit the Earth. The
second one (20:00 UT) started also from a long filament eruption,
located in the northern hemisphere. This CME is expected to arrive to
the Earth around February 13, its travel time was estimated to be around

500km/s. Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet and expected to remain

so, unsettled levels (with possible isolated active periods) are
expected for tomorrow as the solar wind from a recurrent coronal hole
arrives to the Earth.


TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 035, BASED ON 09 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 20211 1236/ 10///
1//// 21110 3006/ 4//// 8//// 9////
99999

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania 
NOAA NOTE
NONE
END

UGEOR 30512 20211 1236/ 09/08 11104
10036 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50010 60003 46409 15000
10037 2//// 3//// 410// 50010 60002 46212 15000
10038 2//// 3//// 4422/ 50060 60013 23217 17200
10039 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50010 60002 25722 00000
99999
USSPS 21305 10163 03832 33033 21617 31417 34002 16618 2/801 
USSPS 81202 11013 06222 31040 21119 44427 32002 15816 01203 33001 
24123 0/102 
UMAGF 30503 20211 1004/ 10065 1/012 21121 33221 
UMAGF 31523 20211 ///// 1000/ 1/006 21111 32133 
 
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

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