| |
OK0NAG > SOLAR 10.02.12 23:03l 281 Lines 9476 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
BID : A2MOK0NAG00K
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
Path: IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<IK6ZDE<OK0NAG
Sent: 120210/2200z @:OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU [TCP/IP BBS Praha Strahov] bcm2.01e-zia
X-Info: Prijato od 127.0.0.1 za pomoci SMTP gatewaye
X-barracuda-connect: sunkl.asu.cas.cz[147.231.106.1]
X-barracuda-apparent-source-ip: 147.231.106.1
Date: 10 Feb 2012 22:00:43 +0000
X-barracuda-spam-score: 1.34
X-asg-debug-id: 1328911143-03b3480d612c9470001-dKRjYV
To: solar@eu
X-originalarrivaltime: 10 Feb 2012 22:00:38.0975 (UTC) FILETIME=[6C9D8CF0:01CCE83F]
From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
X-barracuda-bbl-ip: nil
X-barracuda-spam-status: No, SCORE=1.34 using global scores of TAG_LEVEL=1000.0 QUARANTINE_LEVEL=1000.0 KILL_LEVEL=9.0 tests=HTML_MESSAGE, MIME_BASE64_TEXT, MIME_QP_LONG_LINE, MIME_QP_LONG_LINE_2
X-spam-flag: NO
X-spam-score: -0.152
X-barracuda-envelope-from: solar@sunkl.asu.cas.cz
X-barracuda-spam-report: Code version 3.2, rules version 3.2.2.88180Rule breakdown below pts rule name description---- ---------------------- --------------------------------------------------0.00 HTML_MESSAGE BODY: HTML included in message0.52 MIME_BASE64_TEXT RAW: Mes
sage text disguised using base64 encoding0.00 MIME_QP_LONG_LINE RAW: Quoted-printable line longer than 76 chars0.82 MIME_QP_LONG_LINE_2 RAW: Quoted-printable line longer than 76 chars
X-barracuda-url: http://147.231.105.98:8000/cgi-mod/mark.cgi
Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-barracuda-start-time: 1328911143
----boundary_207799_725ea59d-a738-48c0-9d07-6fd60999944c
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Feb 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 041 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Feb 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was low due to C-class x-ray events from
Region 1415 (N08W84). Region 1416 (S17E10) continues to evolve
developing a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. New Region 1417
(N18E59) rotated onto the disk as a B-type group. As asymmetric,
full-halo CME was observed lifting off the NE limb, first seen in
SOHO LASCO C2 imagery at 09/2117Z. The source region for this event
appears to be located to the southwest of Region 1417. A second CME
was observed in STEREO-A and B COR2 imagery, first seen on the Ahead
spacecraft at 10/1154Z. The source of this CME appears to be a 23
degree long filament eruption, centered near S31E29. Analysis is
ongoing on the geoeffective potential of these CMEs.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for M-class activity for the next three days
(11 - 13 February) due to the return of old Region 1402 (N26,
L=218).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. ACE satellite
solar wind velocities were steady through the period at about 450
km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field was
mostly north at about 5 nT with brief southward excursions to -4 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on day one (11 February) through midday
on day two (12 February). By midday on day two, and through day
three (13 February), field activity is expected to increase to quiet
to unsettled levels with high latitude active intervals. This
increase in activity is due to a recurrent coronal high speed stream
that is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
Class M 05/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Feb 111
Predicted 11 Feb-13 Feb 115/120/120
90 Day Mean 10 Feb 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Feb 004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Feb 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Feb-13 Feb 004/005-006/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/30/30
Minor storm 01/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/40/40
Minor storm 05/20/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
----boundary_207799_725ea59d-a738-48c0-9d07-6fd60999944c
Content-Type: text/html
Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64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----boundary_207799_725ea59d-a738-48c0-9d07-6fd60999944c--
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
