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OK0NAG > SOLAR 09.02.12 23:06l 294 Lines 9935 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Feb 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 040 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels due to C-class flaring
from Region 1415 (N10W73), the largest a C2/Sf at 08/2217Z. The
region showed little change as it approached the west limb. New
Region 1416 (S16E24) emerged on the disk as a D-type spot group and
produced two B9 x-ray events. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
at low levels for the next three days (10 - 12 February). A slight
chance for M-class activity exists on days two and three due to the
anticipated return of old Region 1402 (N26, L=213).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated
active periods observed at high latitudes. ACE satellite wind
velocities began the period at about 450 km/s and gradually
decreased to near 360 km/s through 09/1230Z. During this same time
frame, the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field did not
vary much beyond +/- 4 nT. By 09/1230Z, an increase in temperature,
density, velocity and Bt were recorded at ACE. These signatures
were indicative of a co-rotating interaction region in advance of a
coronal high speed stream (CH HSS). The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated high
latitude active periods on day one (10 February). This activity is
due to effects from a geoeffective CH HSS. By day two (11
February), quiet to unsettled conditions are expected as the CH HSS
rotates out of a geoeffective position. Day three (12 February) is
expected to see a return to quiet to unsettled levels with isolated
high latitude active intervals due to another CH HSS that will move
into a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
Class M 05/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Feb 099
Predicted 10 Feb-12 Feb 105/115/120
90 Day Mean 09 Feb 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb 009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Feb 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb 006/008-004/005-006/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/05/30
Minor storm 10/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 40/10/40
Minor storm 20/05/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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