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OK0NAG > SOLAR 07.02.12 00:04l 217 Lines 7154 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Feb 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 037 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Feb 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 1410 (N17W67)
produced an M1 x-ray flare at 06/2000Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low
with a chance for moderate levels from Region 1410 for days 1 and 2
(7-8 February). Very low to low level are expected on day 3 (9
February) after Region 1410 transits off the west limb of the solar
disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for days 1-2 (7-8 February). Activity
should increase to unsettled and active levels late on day 3 (9
February) from the onset of coronal hole high speed stream effects.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb
Class M 30/30/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Feb 112
Predicted 07 Feb-09 Feb 110/110/100
90 Day Mean 06 Feb 138
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Feb 006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Feb 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Feb-09 Feb 004/005-004/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/15
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/30
Minor storm 01/01/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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