| |
OK0NAG > SOLAR 29.01.12 23:03l 283 Lines 9502 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
BID : T1MOK0NAG00J
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
Path: IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<IK6ZDE<OK0NAG
Sent: 120129/2200z @:OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU [TCP/IP BBS Praha Strahov] bcm2.01e-zia
X-Info: Prijato od 127.0.0.1 za pomoci SMTP gatewaye
X-barracuda-connect: sunkl.asu.cas.cz[147.231.106.1]
X-barracuda-apparent-source-ip: 147.231.106.1
Date: 29 Jan 2012 22:00:31 +0000
X-barracuda-spam-score: 1.34
X-asg-debug-id: 1327874330-03b3480d61136820001-dKRjYV
To: solar@eu
X-originalarrivaltime: 29 Jan 2012 22:00:37.0040 (UTC) FILETIME=[6E814B00:01CCDED1]
From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
X-barracuda-bbl-ip: nil
X-barracuda-spam-status: No, SCORE=1.34 using global scores of TAG_LEVEL=1000.0 QUARANTINE_LEVEL=1000.0 KILL_LEVEL=9.0 tests=HTML_MESSAGE, MIME_BASE64_TEXT, MIME_QP_LONG_LINE, MIME_QP_LONG_LINE_2
X-spam-flag: NO
X-spam-score: -0.158
X-barracuda-envelope-from: solar@sunkl.asu.cas.cz
X-barracuda-spam-report: Code version 3.2, rules version 3.2.2.87045Rule breakdown below pts rule name description---- ---------------------- --------------------------------------------------0.00 HTML_MESSAGE BODY: HTML included in message0.52 MIME_BASE64_TEXT RAW: Mes
sage text disguised using base64 encoding0.00 MIME_QP_LONG_LINE RAW: Quoted-printable line longer than 76 chars0.82 MIME_QP_LONG_LINE_2 RAW: Quoted-printable line longer than 76 chars
X-barracuda-url: http://147.231.105.98:8000/cgi-mod/mark.cgi
Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-barracuda-start-time: 1327874330
----boundary_464529_66486a5c-d6db-4663-b90e-861f36b24793
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jan 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 029 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jan 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. Two new regions
emerged on the disk during the period: Region 1412 (S15W41) and
Region 1413 (N08E38). Both regions were magnetically simple Beta,
B-type groups. No new Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels with a chance for C-class activity for the next
three days (30 January - 01 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The period
began with ACE satellite wind velocities at about 450 km/s and
exhibited slow decay to end the period near 380 km/s. The Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field did not vary beyond
+/- 4 nT. The greater than 100 MeV proton event that began at
27/1900Z, reached a maximum of 11 pfu at 27/2140Z and ended at
28/2120Z. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at
27/1905Z and reached a maximum of 796 pfu at 28/0205Z was still in
progress at the time of this report, but flux levels had decayed to
below 100 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active conditions with a chance for
isolated minor storm periods on day one (30 January). This increase
in activity is due to anticipated effects from the CME associated
with the 27 January X1 flare. Quiet to unsettled conditions with
isolated active periods are expected on day two (31 January) due to
residual CME effects. By day three (01 February), mostly quiet
conditions are expected. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
levels, at geosynchronous orbit, are expected to decay to below
event threshold by 30/1800Z.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 99/01/01
PCAF In Progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Jan 110
Predicted 30 Jan-01 Feb 110/110/115
90 Day Mean 29 Jan 143
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jan 006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jan 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jan-01 Feb 014/018-007/008-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/15/05
Minor storm 20/05/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/20/10
Minor storm 30/10/01
Major-severe storm 10/05/01
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
----boundary_464529_66486a5c-d6db-4663-b90e-861f36b24793
Content-Type: text/html
Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64
PCFET0NUWVBFIEhUTUwgUFVCTElDICItLy9XM0MvL0RURCBIVE1MIDQuMCBUcmFuc2l0aW9u
YWwvL0VOIj48SFRNTD48SEVBRD48TUVUQSBodHRwLWVxdWl2PUNvbnRlbnQtVHlwZSBjb250
ZW50PSJ0ZXh0L2h0bWw7IGNoYXJzZXQ9aXNvLTg4NTktMSI+PC9IRUFEPjxCT0RZPjxQUkU+
OlByb2R1Y3Q6IFJlcG9ydCBvZiBTb2xhci1HZW9waHlzaWNhbCBBY3Rpdml0eQ0KOklzc3Vl
ZDogMjAxMiBKYW4gMjkgMjIwMCBVVEMNCiMgUHJlcGFyZWQgam9pbnRseSBieSB0aGUgVS5T
LiBEZXB0LiBvZiBDb21tZXJjZSwgTk9BQSwNCiMgU3BhY2UgV2VhdGhlciBQcmVkaWN0aW9u
IENlbnRlciBhbmQgdGhlIFUuUy4gQWlyIEZvcmNlLg0KIw0KSm9pbnQgVVNBRi9OT0FBIFJl
cG9ydCBvZiBTb2xhciBhbmQgR2VvcGh5c2ljYWwgQWN0aXZpdHkNClNERiBOdW1iZXIgMDI5
IElzc3VlZCBhdCAyMjAwWiBvbiAyOSBKYW4gMjAxMg0KSUEuICBBbmFseXNpcyBvZiBTb2xh
ciBBY3RpdmUgUmVnaW9ucyBhbmQgQWN0aXZpdHkgZnJvbSAgMjgvMjEwMFoNCnRvIDI5LzIx
MDBaOiAgU29sYXIgYWN0aXZpdHkgd2FzIGF0IHZlcnkgbG93IGxldmVscy4gIFR3byBuZXcg
cmVnaW9ucw0KZW1lcmdlZCBvbiB0aGUgZGlzayBkdXJpbmcgdGhlIHBlcmlvZDogIFJlZ2lv
biAxNDEyIChTMTVXNDEpIGFuZA0KUmVnaW9uIDE0MTMgKE4wOEUzOCkuICBCb3RoIHJlZ2lv
bnMgd2VyZSBtYWduZXRpY2FsbHkgc2ltcGxlIEJldGEsDQpCLXR5cGUgZ3JvdXBzLiAgTm8g
bmV3IEVhcnRoLWRpcmVjdGVkIENNRXMgd2VyZSBvYnNlcnZlZC4NCklCLiAgU29sYXIgQWN0
aXZpdHkgRm9yZWNhc3Q6ICBTb2xhciBhY3Rpdml0eSBpcyBleHBlY3RlZCB0byBiZSBhdA0K
dmVyeSBsb3cgbGV2ZWxzIHdpdGggYSBjaGFuY2UgZm9yIEMtY2xhc3MgYWN0aXZpdHkgZm9y
IHRoZSBuZXh0DQp0aHJlZSBkYXlzICgzMCBKYW51YXJ5IC0gMDEgRmVicnVhcnkpLg0KSUlB
LiAgR2VvcGh5c2ljYWwgQWN0aXZpdHkgU3VtbWFyeSAyOC8yMTAwWiB0byAyOS8yMTAwWjoN
ClRoZSBnZW9tYWduZXRpYyBmaWVsZCB3YXMgYXQgcXVpZXQgdG8gdW5zZXR0bGVkIGxldmVs
cy4gIFRoZSBwZXJpb2QNCmJlZ2FuIHdpdGggQUNFIHNhdGVsbGl0ZSB3aW5kIHZlbG9jaXRp
ZXMgYXQgYWJvdXQgNDUwIGttL3MgYW5kDQpleGhpYml0ZWQgc2xvdyBkZWNheSB0byBlbmQg
dGhlIHBlcmlvZCBuZWFyIDM4MCBrbS9zLiAgVGhlIEJ6DQpjb21wb25lbnQgb2YgdGhlIGlu
dGVycGxhbmV0YXJ5IG1hZ25ldGljIGZpZWxkIGRpZCBub3QgdmFyeSBiZXlvbmQNCisvLSA0
IG5ULiAgVGhlIGdyZWF0ZXIgdGhhbiAxMDAgTWVWIHByb3RvbiBldmVudCB0aGF0IGJlZ2Fu
IGF0DQoyNy8xOTAwWiwgcmVhY2hlZCBhIG1heGltdW0gb2YgMTEgcGZ1IGF0IDI3LzIxNDBa
IGFuZCBlbmRlZCBhdA0KMjgvMjEyMFouICBUaGUgZ3JlYXRlciB0aGFuIDEwIE1lViBwcm90
b24gZXZlbnQgdGhhdCBiZWdhbiBhdA0KMjcvMTkwNVogYW5kIHJlYWNoZWQgYSBtYXhpbXVt
IG9mIDc5NiBwZnUgYXQgMjgvMDIwNVogd2FzIHN0aWxsIGluDQpwcm9ncmVzcyBhdCB0aGUg
dGltZSBvZiB0aGlzIHJlcG9ydCwgYnV0IGZsdXggbGV2ZWxzIGhhZCBkZWNheWVkIHRvDQpi
ZWxvdyAxMDAgcGZ1Lg0KSUlCLiAgR2VvcGh5c2ljYWwgQWN0aXZpdHkgRm9yZWNhc3Q6ICBU
aGUgZ2VvbWFnbmV0aWMgZmllbGQgaXMNCmV4cGVjdGVkIHRvIGJlIGF0IHVuc2V0dGxlZCB0
byBhY3RpdmUgY29uZGl0aW9ucyB3aXRoIGEgY2hhbmNlIGZvcg0KaXNvbGF0ZWQgbWlub3Ig
c3Rvcm0gcGVyaW9kcyBvbiBkYXkgb25lICgzMCBKYW51YXJ5KS4gIFRoaXMgaW5jcmVhc2UN
CmluIGFjdGl2aXR5IGlzIGR1ZSB0byBhbnRpY2lwYXRlZCBlZmZlY3RzIGZyb20gdGhlIENN
RSBhc3NvY2lhdGVkDQp3aXRoIHRoZSAyNyBKYW51YXJ5IFgxIGZsYXJlLiAgUXVpZXQgdG8g
dW5zZXR0bGVkIGNvbmRpdGlvbnMgd2l0aA0KaXNvbGF0ZWQgYWN0aXZlIHBlcmlvZHMgYXJl
IGV4cGVjdGVkIG9uIGRheSB0d28gKDMxIEphbnVhcnkpIGR1ZSB0bw0KcmVzaWR1YWwgQ01F
IGVmZmVjdHMuICBCeSBkYXkgdGhyZWUgKDAxIEZlYnJ1YXJ5KSwgbW9zdGx5IHF1aWV0DQpj
b25kaXRpb25zIGFyZSBleHBlY3RlZC4gIFRoZSBncmVhdGVyIHRoYW4gMTAgTWVWIHByb3Rv
biBmbHV4DQpsZXZlbHMsIGF0IGdlb3N5bmNocm9ub3VzIG9yYml0LCBhcmUgZXhwZWN0ZWQg
dG8gZGVjYXkgdG8gYmVsb3cNCmV2ZW50IHRocmVzaG9sZCBieSAzMC8xODAwWi4NCklJSS4g
IEV2ZW50IFByb2JhYmlsaXRpZXMgMzAgSmFuLTAxIEZlYg0KQ2xhc3MgTSAgICAwMS8wMS8w
MQ0KQ2xhc3MgWCAgICAwMS8wMS8wMQ0KUHJvdG9uICAgICA5OS8wMS8wMQ0KUENBRiAgICAg
ICBJbiBQcm9ncmVzcw0KSVYuICBQZW50aWN0b24gMTAuNyBjbSBGbHV4DQpPYnNlcnZlZCAg
ICAgICAgICAgMjkgSmFuIDExMA0KUHJlZGljdGVkICAgMzAgSmFuLTAxIEZlYiAgMTEwLzEx
MC8xMTUNCjkwIERheSBNZWFuICAgICAgICAyOSBKYW4gMTQzDQpWLiAgR2VvbWFnbmV0aWMg
QSBJbmRpY2VzDQpPYnNlcnZlZCBBZnIvQXAgMjggSmFuICAwMDYvMDA0DQpFc3RpbWF0ZWQg
QWZyL0FwIDI5IEphbiAgMDA0LzAwNQ0KUHJlZGljdGVkIEFmci9BcCAzMCBKYW4tMDEgRmVi
ICAwMTQvMDE4LTAwNy8wMDgtMDA0LzAwNQ0KVkkuICBHZW9tYWduZXRpYyBBY3Rpdml0eSBQ
cm9iYWJpbGl0aWVzIDMwIEphbi0wMSBGZWINCkEuICBNaWRkbGUgTGF0aXR1ZGVzDQpBY3Rp
dmUgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgMjUvMTUvMDUNCk1pbm9yIHN0b3JtICAgICAgICAgICAyMC8w
NS8wMQ0KTWFqb3Itc2V2ZXJlIHN0b3JtICAgIDA1LzAxLzAxDQpCLiAgSGlnaCBMYXRpdHVk
ZXMNCkFjdGl2ZSAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAzMC8yMC8xMA0KTWlub3Igc3Rvcm0gICAgICAg
ICAgIDMwLzEwLzAxDQpNYWpvci1zZXZlcmUgc3Rvcm0gICAgMTAvMDUvMDENCjwvUFJFPjxC
Uj48SFI+VGhhbmsgeW91IGZvciB1c2luZyB0aGUgUHJvZHVjdCBTdWJzY3JpcHRpb24gU2Vy
dmljZS4gSWYgeW91IHdvdWxkIGxpa2UgdG8gcmVtb3ZlIGEgcHJvZHVjdCBzdWJzY3JpcHRp
b24gb3IgdXBkYXRlIHRoZSBwZXJzb25hbCBpbmZvcm1hdGlvbiBpbiB5b3VyIGFjY291bnQs
IGdvIHRvIHRoZSA8YSBocmVmPSJodHRwczovL3Bzcy5zd3BjLm5vYWEuZ292Ij5Qcm9kdWN0
IFN1YnNjcmlwdGlvbiBTaXRlLjwvYT4gUGxlYXNlIGRvIG5vdCB1c2UgdGhlIGZyb20gYWRk
cmVzcyBmb3IgY29ycmVzcG9uZGVuY2UsIGFzIGl0IGlzIG5vdCBtb25pdG9yZWQuIEZvciBj
b21tZW50cyBvciBoZWxwLCBwbGVhc2UgY29udGFjdCA8YSBocmVmPSJtYWlsdG86cHNzLmhl
bHBAbm9hYS5nb3YiPlNXUEMgSGVscC48L2E+PC9CT0RZPjwvSFRNTD4----boundary_464529_66486a5c-d6db-4663-b90e-861f36b24793--
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
