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OK0NAG > SOLAR 21.01.12 14:31l 124 Lines 4802 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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:Issued: 2012 Jan 21 1225 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU021
UGEOA 30512 20121 1158/ 9930/
11212 22212 38212
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 21 Jan 2012 until 23 Jan
2012
PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Jan 2012 10CM FLUX: 145 / AP: 012
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Jan 2012 10CM FLUX: 147 / AP: 026
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Jan 2012 10CM FLUX: 145 / AP: 007
COMMENT: Catania sunspot groups 20 and 21 (NOAA ARs 1401 and 1402
respectively) remain large and have beta configuration of their
photospheric magnetic field. We expect flaring activity on the C-level,
with an M-class flare possible but not very likely. The solar proton
flux at energies above 10 MeV is still above the background, although
below the event threshold. An SEP event later today or tomorrow is not
excluded due to expected arrival of the shock from interacting CMEs
(observed on the Sun on January 18 and 19). Another possible consequence
of the expected shock arrival is minor to moderate geomagnetic storm
conditions. The (complex) ICME driving the shock is expected to miss the
Earth or to have only a glancing blow. Currently the Earth is inside a
slow (around 300 km/s) solar wind flow with slightly elevated (around 7
nT) interplanetary magnetic field magnitude. We expect quiet geomagnetic
conditions in the coming hours (until the expected shock arrival).
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 065, BASED ON 03 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 20121 1158/ 20///
10162 21410 3005/ 4//// 80309 90920
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania
NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
UGEOR 30512 20121 1158/ 20/08 21109
10016 2//// 3//// 410// 50010 60001 30321 00000
10018 2//// 3//// 410// 50010 60002 32718 00000
10019 2//// 3//// 4432/ 50070 60015 40518 01000
10020 2//// 3//// 4542/ 50410 60031 10817 16200
10021 2//// 3//// 4442/ 50360 60014 11029 15100
10022 2//// 3//// 4321/ 50030 60005 12213 01000
10023 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50010 60002 43717 00000
10024 2//// 3//// 410// 50010 60001 17518 00000
10025 2//// 3//// 410// 50010 60001 28015 00000
99999
USSPS 32404 20098 07922 12033 10815 31521 13031 11128 51409 16002
12211 2/801 20005 40516 21408
USSPS 21305 20159 09332 10044 10930 54410 11043 10717 51618 14003
12112 31305 19005 40818 31409 20001 44417 0/101
USSPS 81202 21050 10032 15003 11213 21304 21002 16019 0/101 22012
17509 3/801 11033 40317 44518 20007 41717 11410 12032 40228 51306
UMAGF 30503 20121 1004/ 20069 1/009 21111 32022
UMAGF 31523 20121 ///// 2000/ 1/005 22210 30230
UCMEO 93001 20120 1530/ 20119 61512 81954 0411/ 040// 333// 41698
20119 61345 81624 12232 11402 1212/ 99999 PLAIN
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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