| |
OK0NAG > SOLAR 20.01.12 23:05l 257 Lines 8542 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
BID : K1MOK0NAG00M
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
Path: IZ3LSV<IV3SCP<SR1BSZ<OK0NBR<OK0PHL<OK0PCC<OM0PBC<OK0PPL<OK0NAG
Sent: 120120/2201z @:OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU [TCP/IP BBS Praha Strahov] bcm2.01e-zia
X-Info: Prijato od 127.0.0.1 za pomoci SMTP gatewaye
X-barracuda-connect: sunkl.asu.cas.cz[147.231.106.1]
X-barracuda-apparent-source-ip: 147.231.106.1
Date: 20 Jan 2012 22:01:39 +0000
X-barracuda-spam-score: 1.34
X-asg-debug-id: 1327096790-03b3480d6117e90001-dKRjYV
To: solar@eu
X-originalarrivaltime: 20 Jan 2012 22:01:36.0296 (UTC) FILETIME=[141B4A80:01CCD7BF]
From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
X-barracuda-bbl-ip: nil
X-barracuda-spam-status: No, SCORE=1.34 using global scores of TAG_LEVEL=1000.0 QUARANTINE_LEVEL=1000.0 KILL_LEVEL=9.0 tests=HTML_MESSAGE, MIME_BASE64_TEXT, MIME_QP_LONG_LINE, MIME_QP_LONG_LINE_2
X-spam-flag: NO
X-spam-score: -0.162
X-barracuda-envelope-from: solar@sunkl.asu.cas.cz
X-barracuda-spam-report: Code version 3.2, rules version 3.2.2.86385Rule breakdown below pts rule name description---- ---------------------- --------------------------------------------------0.00 HTML_MESSAGE BODY: HTML included in message0.52 MIME_BASE64_TEXT RAW: Mes
sage text disguised using base64 encoding0.00 MIME_QP_LONG_LINE RAW: Quoted-printable line longer than 76 chars0.82 MIME_QP_LONG_LINE_2 RAW: Quoted-printable line longer than 76 chars
X-barracuda-url: http://147.231.105.98:8000/cgi-mod/mark.cgi
Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-barracuda-start-time: 1327096790
----boundary_181024_007e4ee3-e2a8-423e-a547-b78f48336bc4
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jan 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 020 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jan 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z: Solar activity was very low with no flares detected.
Region 1401 (N15W01) showed intermediate spot development during the
period and was classified as an Eki group with beta magnetic
structure. Region 1402 (N28E03) showed no significant changes and
was classified as a Dki group with beta magnetic structure. No new
regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (21 - 23 January) with a chance for an M-class
flare from Region 1401 or 1402.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. An enhancement of the greater than
10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit began around 20/0800Z and
continued through the end of the period. The enhancement was
associated with the long-duration M3/2n flare observed on 19
January.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels during day 1 (21 January) and most of
day 2 (22 January). Field activity is expected to increase to
unsettled to active levels late on day 2 and day 3 (23 January) with
a chance for minor storm levels due to the arrival of the halo-CME
observed on 19 January. There will be a slight chance for a greater
than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit during the period.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Jan-23 Jan
Class M 45/45/45
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Jan 141
Predicted 21 Jan-23 Jan 145/145/145
90 Day Mean 20 Jan 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jan 001/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jan 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jan-23 Jan 004/005-010/010-010/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jan-23 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/25/35
Minor storm 01/15/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/30/40
Minor storm 01/20/25
Major-severe storm 01/05/10
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
----boundary_181024_007e4ee3-e2a8-423e-a547-b78f48336bc4
Content-Type: text/html
Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64
PCFET0NUWVBFIEhUTUwgUFVCTElDICItLy9XM0MvL0RURCBIVE1MIDQuMCBUcmFuc2l0aW9u
YWwvL0VOIj48SFRNTD48SEVBRD48TUVUQSBodHRwLWVxdWl2PUNvbnRlbnQtVHlwZSBjb250
ZW50PSJ0ZXh0L2h0bWw7IGNoYXJzZXQ9aXNvLTg4NTktMSI+PC9IRUFEPjxCT0RZPjxQUkU+
OlByb2R1Y3Q6IFJlcG9ydCBvZiBTb2xhci1HZW9waHlzaWNhbCBBY3Rpdml0eQ0KOklzc3Vl
ZDogMjAxMiBKYW4gMjAgMjIwMCBVVEMNCiMgUHJlcGFyZWQgam9pbnRseSBieSB0aGUgVS5T
LiBEZXB0LiBvZiBDb21tZXJjZSwgTk9BQSwNCiMgU3BhY2UgV2VhdGhlciBQcmVkaWN0aW9u
IENlbnRlciBhbmQgdGhlIFUuUy4gQWlyIEZvcmNlLg0KIw0KSm9pbnQgVVNBRi9OT0FBIFJl
cG9ydCBvZiBTb2xhciBhbmQgR2VvcGh5c2ljYWwgQWN0aXZpdHkNClNERiBOdW1iZXIgMDIw
IElzc3VlZCBhdCAyMjAwWiBvbiAyMCBKYW4gMjAxMg0KSUEuICBBbmFseXNpcyBvZiBTb2xh
ciBBY3RpdmUgUmVnaW9ucyBhbmQgQWN0aXZpdHkgZnJvbSAgMTkvMjEwMFoNCnRvIDIwLzIx
MDBaOiAgU29sYXIgYWN0aXZpdHkgd2FzIHZlcnkgbG93IHdpdGggbm8gZmxhcmVzIGRldGVj
dGVkLg0KUmVnaW9uIDE0MDEgKE4xNVcwMSkgc2hvd2VkIGludGVybWVkaWF0ZSBzcG90IGRl
dmVsb3BtZW50IGR1cmluZyB0aGUNCnBlcmlvZCBhbmQgd2FzIGNsYXNzaWZpZWQgYXMgYW4g
RWtpIGdyb3VwIHdpdGggYmV0YSBtYWduZXRpYw0Kc3RydWN0dXJlLiBSZWdpb24gMTQwMiAo
TjI4RTAzKSBzaG93ZWQgbm8gc2lnbmlmaWNhbnQgY2hhbmdlcyBhbmQNCndhcyBjbGFzc2lm
aWVkIGFzIGEgRGtpIGdyb3VwIHdpdGggYmV0YSBtYWduZXRpYyBzdHJ1Y3R1cmUuIE5vIG5l
dw0KcmVnaW9ucyB3ZXJlIG51bWJlcmVkLg0KSUIuICBTb2xhciBBY3Rpdml0eSBGb3JlY2Fz
dDogIFNvbGFyIGFjdGl2aXR5IGlzIGV4cGVjdGVkIHRvIGJlIGxvdw0KdGhyb3VnaCB0aGUg
cGVyaW9kICgyMSAtIDIzIEphbnVhcnkpIHdpdGggYSBjaGFuY2UgZm9yIGFuIE0tY2xhc3MN
CmZsYXJlIGZyb20gUmVnaW9uIDE0MDEgb3IgMTQwMi4NCklJQS4gIEdlb3BoeXNpY2FsIEFj
dGl2aXR5IFN1bW1hcnkgMTkvMjEwMFogdG8gMjAvMjEwMFo6DQpUaGUgZ2VvbWFnbmV0aWMg
ZmllbGQgd2FzIHF1aWV0LiBBbiBlbmhhbmNlbWVudCBvZiB0aGUgZ3JlYXRlciB0aGFuDQox
MCBNZVYgcHJvdG9uIGZsdXggYXQgZ2Vvc3luY2hyb25vdXMgb3JiaXQgYmVnYW4gYXJvdW5k
IDIwLzA4MDBaIGFuZA0KY29udGludWVkIHRocm91Z2ggdGhlIGVuZCBvZiB0aGUgcGVyaW9k
LiBUaGUgZW5oYW5jZW1lbnQgd2FzDQphc3NvY2lhdGVkIHdpdGggdGhlIGxvbmctZHVyYXRp
b24gTTMvMm4gZmxhcmUgb2JzZXJ2ZWQgb24gMTkNCkphbnVhcnkuDQpJSUIuICBHZW9waHlz
aWNhbCBBY3Rpdml0eSBGb3JlY2FzdDogIFRoZSBnZW9tYWduZXRpYyBmaWVsZCBpcw0KZXhw
ZWN0ZWQgdG8gYmUgYXQgcXVpZXQgbGV2ZWxzIGR1cmluZyBkYXkgMSAoMjEgSmFudWFyeSkg
YW5kIG1vc3Qgb2YNCmRheSAyICgyMiBKYW51YXJ5KS4gRmllbGQgYWN0aXZpdHkgaXMgZXhw
ZWN0ZWQgdG8gaW5jcmVhc2UgdG8NCnVuc2V0dGxlZCB0byBhY3RpdmUgbGV2ZWxzIGxhdGUg
b24gZGF5IDIgYW5kIGRheSAzICgyMyBKYW51YXJ5KSB3aXRoDQphIGNoYW5jZSBmb3IgbWlu
b3Igc3Rvcm0gbGV2ZWxzIGR1ZSB0byB0aGUgYXJyaXZhbCBvZiB0aGUgaGFsby1DTUUNCm9i
c2VydmVkIG9uIDE5IEphbnVhcnkuIFRoZXJlIHdpbGwgYmUgYSBzbGlnaHQgY2hhbmNlIGZv
ciBhIGdyZWF0ZXINCnRoYW4gMTAgTWVWIHByb3RvbiBldmVudCBhdCBnZW9zeW5jaHJvbm91
cyBvcmJpdCBkdXJpbmcgdGhlIHBlcmlvZC4NCklJSS4gIEV2ZW50IFByb2JhYmlsaXRpZXMg
MjEgSmFuLTIzIEphbg0KQ2xhc3MgTSAgICA0NS80NS80NQ0KQ2xhc3MgWCAgICAxMC8xMC8x
MA0KUHJvdG9uICAgICAxMC8xMC8xMA0KUENBRiAgICAgICBHcmVlbg0KSVYuICBQZW50aWN0
b24gMTAuNyBjbSBGbHV4DQpPYnNlcnZlZCAgICAgICAgICAgMjAgSmFuIDE0MQ0KUHJlZGlj
dGVkICAgMjEgSmFuLTIzIEphbiAgMTQ1LzE0NS8xNDUNCjkwIERheSBNZWFuICAgICAgICAy
MCBKYW4gMTQ0DQpWLiAgR2VvbWFnbmV0aWMgQSBJbmRpY2VzDQpPYnNlcnZlZCBBZnIvQXAg
MTkgSmFuICAwMDEvMDAzDQpFc3RpbWF0ZWQgQWZyL0FwIDIwIEphbiAgMDAzLzAwNA0KUHJl
ZGljdGVkIEFmci9BcCAyMSBKYW4tMjMgSmFuICAwMDQvMDA1LTAxMC8wMTAtMDEwLzAyNQ0K
VkkuICBHZW9tYWduZXRpYyBBY3Rpdml0eSBQcm9iYWJpbGl0aWVzIDIxIEphbi0yMyBKYW4N
CkEuICBNaWRkbGUgTGF0aXR1ZGVzDQpBY3RpdmUgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgMDUvMjUvMzUN
Ck1pbm9yIHN0b3JtICAgICAgICAgICAwMS8xNS8yMA0KTWFqb3Itc2V2ZXJlIHN0b3JtICAg
IDAxLzAxLzA1DQpCLiAgSGlnaCBMYXRpdHVkZXMNCkFjdGl2ZSAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAx
MC8zMC80MA0KTWlub3Igc3Rvcm0gICAgICAgICAgIDAxLzIwLzI1DQpNYWpvci1zZXZlcmUg
c3Rvcm0gICAgMDEvMDUvMTANCjwvUFJFPjxCUj48SFI+VGhhbmsgeW91IGZvciB1c2luZyB0
aGUgUHJvZHVjdCBTdWJzY3JpcHRpb24gU2VydmljZS4gSWYgeW91IHdvdWxkIGxpa2UgdG8g
cmVtb3ZlIGEgcHJvZHVjdCBzdWJzY3JpcHRpb24gb3IgdXBkYXRlIHRoZSBwZXJzb25hbCBp
bmZvcm1hdGlvbiBpbiB5b3VyIGFjY291bnQsIGdvIHRvIHRoZSA8YSBocmVmPSJodHRwczov
L3Bzcy5zd3BjLm5vYWEuZ292Ij5Qcm9kdWN0IFN1YnNjcmlwdGlvbiBTaXRlLjwvYT4gUGxl
YXNlIGRvIG5vdCB1c2UgdGhlIGZyb20gYWRkcmVzcyBmb3IgY29ycmVzcG9uZGVuY2UsIGFz
IGl0IGlzIG5vdCBtb25pdG9yZWQuIEZvciBjb21tZW50cyBvciBoZWxwLCBwbGVhc2UgY29u
dGFjdCA8YSBocmVmPSJtYWlsdG86cHNzLmhlbHBAbm9hYS5nb3YiPlNXUEMgSGVscC48L2E+
PC9CT0RZPjwvSFRNTD4----boundary_181024_007e4ee3-e2a8-423e-a547-b78f48336bc4--
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
