| |
OK0NAG > SOLAR 06.01.12 00:05l 283 Lines 9621 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
BID : 51MOK0NAG00I
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
Path: IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<OK0PTU<OK0NAG
Sent: 120105/2203z @:OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU [TCP/IP BBS Praha Strahov] bcm2.01e-zia
X-Info: Prijato od 127.0.0.1 za pomoci SMTP gatewaye
X-barracuda-connect: sunkl.asu.cas.cz[147.231.106.1]
X-barracuda-apparent-source-ip: 147.231.106.1
Date: 5 Jan 2012 22:03:25 +0000
X-barracuda-spam-score: 1.34
X-asg-debug-id: 1325800945-03b348141f1c7e80001-dKRjYV
To: solar@eu
X-originalarrivaltime: 05 Jan 2012 22:03:25.0898 (UTC) FILETIME=[D93CFAA0:01CCCBF5]
From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
X-barracuda-bbl-ip: nil
X-barracuda-spam-status: No, SCORE=1.34 using global scores of TAG_LEVEL=1000.0 QUARANTINE_LEVEL=1000.0 KILL_LEVEL=9.0 tests=HTML_MESSAGE, MIME_BASE64_TEXT, MIME_QP_LONG_LINE, MIME_QP_LONG_LINE_2
X-spam-flag: NO
X-spam-score: -0.168
X-barracuda-envelope-from: solar@sunkl.asu.cas.cz
X-barracuda-spam-report: Code version 3.2, rules version 3.2.2.85136Rule breakdown below pts rule name description---- ---------------------- --------------------------------------------------0.00 HTML_MESSAGE BODY: HTML included in message0.52 MIME_BASE64_TEXT RAW: Mes
sage text disguised using base64 encoding0.00 MIME_QP_LONG_LINE RAW: Quoted-printable line longer than 76 chars0.82 MIME_QP_LONG_LINE_2 RAW: Quoted-printable line longer than 76 chars
X-barracuda-url: http://147.231.105.98:8000/cgi-mod/mark.cgi
Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-barracuda-start-time: 1325800945
----boundary_19324_96a5da6c-0473-4722-82fe-0e2e579957a3
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jan 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 005 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours with two C-class events observed. The first C-class
flare was from Region 1390 (N09W71), which had an associated Type II
radio sweep with an estimated shock speed of 695 km/s. Due to the
location of this region, and the lack of a CME in imagery, no Earth
impacts are expected. The second C-class flare was a long duration
C2 flare at 05/1238Z from an eruptive filament channel, located
around Region 1392 (N21W19). The associated CME can be seen in
STEREO ahead and behind imagery and is not expected to impact
Earth. Finally, a new Region emerged on the disk early in the period
and was numbered as Region 1393 (N18W03).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for M-class flares for the next
three days (06 - 08 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at predominantly quiet levels for the
past 24 hours. From 05/1200-1500Z, the mid latitudes observed
unsettled conditions while an isolated period at minor storm levels
was observed at high latitudes. This small increase in activity was
due to a sustained period of the negative Bz component of the
Interplanetary Magnetic Field. Solar wind speeds, as measured by the
ACE spacecraft, fluctuated around 340 km/s throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels on day one (06 January),
unsettled to active levels with a slight chance for minor storm
levels at high latitudes on day two (07 January) and predominantly
unsettled levels on day three (08 January). The increase in activity
is due to the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jan 141
Predicted 06 Jan-08 Jan 140/140/140
90 Day Mean 05 Jan 145
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jan 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jan 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan 005/008-014/010-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/30/30
Minor storm 01/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/25
Minor storm 20/35/10
Major-severe storm 10/40/01
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
----boundary_19324_96a5da6c-0473-4722-82fe-0e2e579957a3
Content-Type: text/html
Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64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----boundary_19324_96a5da6c-0473-4722-82fe-0e2e579957a3--
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
