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OK0NAG > SOLAR 01.01.12 14:22l 108 Lines 4053 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: Monthly Ri Report
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# MONTHLY REPORT ON THE INTERNATIONAL SUNSPOT NUMBER #
# from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
Provisional International monthly mean Sunspot Number for
December 2011 : 73.0 (seventy-three point zero)
Maximum : 108 on 4 // Minimum : 38 on 15
Provisional daily International Sunspot Numbers for December 2011 :
1.. 86 6..101 11.. 62 16.. 50 21.. 73 26.. 78 31.. 62
2.. 85 7.. 88 12.. 51 17.. 60 22.. 69 27.. 76
3..103 8..106 13.. 54 18.. 67 23.. 69 28.. 73
4..108 9.. 76 14.. 52 19.. 77 24.. 56 29.. 75
5..101 10.. 68 15.. 38 20.. 72 25.. 65 30.. 62
70 cooperating stations on January 1, 11 UT
Predictions of the monthly smoothed Sunspot Number using the last
provisional value, calculated for June 2011 : 53.2 (+-5%)
SM CM SM CM SM CM
2011 Jul 60 57 2012 Jan 92 84 2012 Jul 145 109
Aug 62 61 Feb 100 88 Aug 152 111
Sep 69 66 Mar 110 93 Sep 158 112
Oct 74 70 Apr 120 97 Oct 163 113
Nov 80 75 May 129 102 Nov 167 113
Dec 86 80 Jun 137 106 Dec 170 114
SM : SIDC classical method : based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's
standard curves; the estimated error ranges from 7% (first month) to
35% (last month)
CM : Combined method : the combined method is a regression technique
coupling a dynamo-based estimator with Waldmeier's idea of standard
curves, due to K. Denkmayr.
ref. : K. Denkmayr, P. Cugnon, 1997 : "About Sunspot Number Medium-Term
Predictions", in "Solar-Terrestrial Prediction Workshop V", eds.
G. Heckman et al., Hiraiso Solar Terrestrial Research Center, Japan, 103
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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