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OK0NAG > SOLAR 27.12.11 15:17l 130 Lines 5150 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Date: Tue, 27 Dec 2011 13:12:16 GMT
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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:Issued: 2011 Dec 27 1310 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU361
UGEOA 30512 11227 1307/ 9930/
11272 21272 30272
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 27 Dec 2011 until 29 Dec
2011
PREDICTIONS FOR 27 Dec 2011 10CM FLUX: 147 / AP: 003
PREDICTIONS FOR 28 Dec 2011 10CM FLUX: 150 / AP: 024
PREDICTIONS FOR 29 Dec 2011 10CM FLUX: 155 / AP: 026
COMMENT: Solar conditions remain at active level as NOAA AR 11387
produced another M-flare yesterday at 20:30 UT. The main event
yesterday, however, was a long duration C5.7 flare, which also
originated in this active region. This C-flare peaked at 11:50 and was
associated with a filament activation to the northeast of AR 11384.
Following this event, a CME was observed by STEREOa/b COR2 and
SOHO/LASCO coronographs. CACTUS estimates the speed of this
earth-directed CME around 470 km/s, which translated to an expected
arrival at Earth in the morning of Dec 30th. Several other CME's were
observed by the coronographs onboard SOHO and STEREO in the last few
days. The most prominent ones are linked to the filament eruption at
23:29 UT on Dec 24th, the M-flares in region 11387 on Dec 25th and 26th
and the C5 flare yesterday. These eruptions were (some partially)
earth-directed, and we can expect to receive at least a glancing blow
from them.
The solar wind speed remains very low at this moment (~240 km/s) and
geomagnetic conditions are currently quiet. We expect unsettled to
active conditions on Dec 28th and 29th due to the arrival of the CME's
mentioned above. The southern polar coronal hole has a considerable
extension towards the north that is turning into a geo-effective
conditions. The faster solar wind originating in this locations can add
to the expected active conditions in the coming days.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 076, BASED ON 05 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 11227 1307/ 26///
1//// 21460 3000/ 4//// 8//// 9////
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania
NOAA NOTE
26 2012 2030 2036 S21W42 M2.3 SF III/1
1387
END
UGEOR 30512 11227 1307/ 23/08 27106
10086 2//// 3//// 4522/ 50100 60005 47419 00000
10089 2//// 3//// 4422/ 50040 60003 33317 00000
10090 2//// 3//// 4522/ 50150 60012 32716 00000
10092 2//// 3//// 4321/ 50020 60002 12104 04000
10094 2//// 3//// 4442/ 50400 60008 13313 18100
10096 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50020 60006 20629 15000
99999
USSPS 32404 26103 09022 73012 37218 2/801 76001 41804 1/801 77032
40513 41412 79013 24518 24511 80007 33521 24315
USSPS 21305 26189 10342 98010 37817 4/801 99002 42304 01202 00044
41014 41310 02002 33732 01202 01024 24018 44413 03025 34021 57415
USSPS 81202 27009 12422 63001 42704 0/102 64042 41312 54309 62012
38019 2/802 67031 34321 34415 65001 33832 0/102 66021 23518 34412
68012 28023 3/801 60001 36520 0/101
UMAGF 30503 11227 1004/ 26065 1/003 21100 30000
UMAGF 31523 11227 ///// 2600/ 1/000 20010 30000
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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