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OK0NAG > SOLAR 15.12.11 13:51l 101 Lines 3649 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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_____________________________________________________________________
Solar-activity forecast for the period Dec 16 - 22, 2011
Activity level: mostly low
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 115 - 140 f.u.
Flares: weak (3-15/day), middle (0-1/period)
Relative sunspot number: in the range 35-75
Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch(at)asu.cas.cz
(RWC Prague)
_____________________________________________________________________
Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period Dec 16 to Dec 22, 2011
quiet: Dec 16, 17, 18, 21 and 22
quiet to unsettled: Dec 19
unsettled: Dec 20
active: 0
minor storm: 0
major storm: 0
severe storm: 0
Geomagnetic activity summary:
geomagnetic field was quiet on Dec 8geo, 9, 12, 13
and 14, quiet to unsettled on Dec 10 and 11.
RWC Prague, Geophysical Institute Prague, Geomagnetic Dept,
Czech Republic
e-mail: geom(at)ig.cas.cz
______________________________________________________________________
Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period of one solar rotation
Geomagnetic field during the following solar rotation should be:
quiet: Dec 16 - 18, 26, Jan 2, 4 - 5, 7, 11
mostly quiet: Dec 19, 24 - 25, 30. Jan 10
quiet to unsettled: Dec 29, Jan 1, 3, 6, 9
quiet to active: Dec 21 - 23, 27, Jan 8
quiet to minor storm: -
quiet to major storm: -
quiet to severe storm: -
mostly unsettled: Dec 28
unsettled to active: Dec 20, 31
unsettled to minor storm: -
minor to major storm: -
Survey: quiet: Dec 6 - 7, 9, 13 - 14
mostly quiet: Dec 8, 12
quiet to unsettled: Dec 10 - 11
quiet to active:
quiet to minor storm: -
quiet to major storm: -
quiet to severe storm: -
mostly unsettled: -
unsettled to active: -
unsettled to minor storm: -
minor to major storm: -
Notices:
High probability of changes in solar wind which may caused
changes in magnetosphere and ionosphere is expected about
Dec 18, 20 - 21, 26, 28. 30, 31, Jan 1, 8, 10 - 11.
Standard error of our forecasting method should be one day since
fourth day, but usually slightly better for day one
to three.
Days in brackets refer to a lower probability of possible
activity enhancements depending on previous development
on the Sun.
F. K. Janda (OK1HH), Czech Propagation Interested Group
e-mail: ok1hh(at)rsys.cz
_____________________________________________________________________
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