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OK0NAG > SOLAR 08.12.11 14:36l 100 Lines 3573 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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_____________________________________________________________________
Solar-activity forecast for the period Dec 9 -15, 2011
Activity level: very low to low
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 120-145 f.u.
Flares: weak (3-12/day)
Relative sunspot number: in the range 80-135
Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch(at)asu.cas.cz
(RWC Prague)
_____________________________________________________________________
Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period Dec 9 to Dec 15, 2011
quiet: Dec 9 to 11 and 13 to 15
quiet to unsettled: Dec 12
unsettled: 0
active: 0
minor storm: 0
major storm: 0
severe storm: 0
Geomagnetic activity summary:
geomagnetic field was quiet on Dec 1, 2 and
from 4 to 7, unsettled on Dec 3.
RWC Prague, Geophysical Institute Prague, Geomagnetic Dept,
Czech Republic
e-mail: geom(at)ig.cas.cz
_____________________________________________________________________
Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period of one solar rotation
Geomagnetic field during the following solar rotation should be:
quiet: Dec 8 - 12, 14, 16 - 18, 23, Jan 2 - 4
mostly quiet: Dec 25, 29
quiet to unsettled: Dec 20 - 21, 24, 28, Jan 1
quiet to active: Dec 22, 27
quiet to minor storm: Dec 19, 26, 30 - 31
quiet to major storm: -
quiet to severe storm: -
mostly unsettled: Dec 13, 15
unsettled to active: -
unsettled to minor storm: -
minor to major storm: -
Survey: quiet: Dec 6 - 7
mostly quiet: Dec 4 - 5
quiet to unsettled: Dec 1
quiet to active: Dec 2 - 3
quiet to minor storm: -
quiet to major storm: -
quiet to severe storm: -
mostly unsettled: Nov 30
unsettled to active: -
unsettled to minor storm: -
minor to major storm: -
Notices:
High probability of changes in solar wind which may caused
changes in magnetosphere and ionosphere is expected about
Dec 9 - 10, 13, 18, 20, 26, 28. 30, 31, Jan 1.
Standard error of our forecasting method should be one day since
fourth day, but usually slightly better for day one to three.
Days in brackets refer to a lower probability of possible
activity enhancements depending on previous development
on the Sun.
F. K. Janda (OK1HH), Czech Propagation Interested Group
e-mail: ok1hh(at)rsys.cz
_____________________________________________________________________
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