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OK0NAG > SOLAR 01.12.11 15:07l 100 Lines 3576 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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_____________________________________________________________________
Solar-activity forecast for the period Dec 2 - 8, 2011
Activity level: mostly low
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 125-155 f.u.
Flares: weak (5-15/day), middle (0-2/period)
Relative sunspot number: in the range 80-120
Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch(at)asu.cas.cz
(RWC Prague)
_____________________________________________________________________
Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period Dec 2 to Dec 8, 2011
quiet: Dec 6, 7 and 8
quiet to unsettled: Dec 3, 4 and 5
unsettled: Dec 2
active: 0
minor storm: 0
major storm: 0
severe storm: 0
Geomagnetic activity summary:
geomagnetic field was quiet from Nov 25 to 28,
unsettled on Nov 24, 29 and 30.
RWC Prague, Geophysical Institute Prague, Geomagnetic Dept,
Czech Republic
e-mail: geom(at)ig.cas.cz
_____________________________________________________________________
Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period of one solar rotation
Geomagnetic field during the following solar rotation should be:
quiet: Dec 6, 10 - 11, 14 - 18, 23
mostly quiet: Dec 4, 12 - 13, 25
quiet to unsettled: Dec 2, 5, 24
quiet to active: Dec 20 - 21
quiet to minor storm: Dec 7, 19, 22, 26
quiet to major storm: Dec 8, 27 - 28
quiet to severe storm: -
mostly unsettled: Dec 3, 9
unsettled to active: -
unsettled to minor storm: -
minor to major storm: -
Survey: quiet: -
mostly quiet: Nov 23, 25- 27
quiet to unsettled: Nov 30
quiet to active: Nov 24, 28 - 29
quiet to minor storm: -
quiet to major storm: -
quiet to severe storm: -
mostly unsettled: -
unsettled to active: -
unsettled to minor storm: -
minor to major storm: -
Notices:
High probability of changes in solar wind which may caused
changes in magnetosphere and ionosphere is expected about
Dec 2, 7, 11 - 13, 19 - 20, (23,) 26.
Standard error of our forecasting method should be one day since
fourth day, but usually slightly better for day one to three.
Days in brackets refer to a lower probability of possible
activity enhancements depending on previous development
on the Sun.
F. K. Janda (OK1HH), Czech Propagation Interested Group
e-mail: ok1hh(at)rsys.cz
_____________________________________________________________________
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