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OK0NAG > SOLAR 18.11.11 00:04l 221 Lines 7244 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Nov 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Nov 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z: Solar activity for the period was low. Region 1346
(S18W03) produced a C6/Sf flare at 17/0727Z with an associated Type
II radio sweep.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
during the period (18 - 20 November) with a slight chance for
isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled levels for day one and
two (18 - 19 November) in response to a possible glancing blow from
the coronal mass ejection observed late on 14 November. On day
three (20 November) the geomagnetic field is expected to return to
quiet levels.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Nov 148
Predicted 18 Nov-20 Nov 150/150/155
90 Day Mean 17 Nov 137
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Nov 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Nov 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov 007/007-007/008-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/06
Minor storm 02/02/02
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 17/17/16
Minor storm 22/22/17
Major-severe storm 13/13/10
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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