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OK0NAG > SOLAR 17.11.11 13:07l 104 Lines 3714 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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_____________________________________________________________________
Solar-activity forecast for the period Nov 18 - 24, 2011
Activity level: mostly low
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 145-120 f.u.
Flares: weak (2-10/day), middle (0-2/period)
Relative sunspot number: in the range 80-130
Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch(at)asu.cas.cz
(RWC Prague)
_____________________________________________________________________
Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period Nov 18 to Nov 24, 2011
quiet: Nov 20 to 24
quiet to unsettled: Nov 19
unsettled: Nov 18
active: 0
minor storm: 0
major storm: 0
severe storm: 0
Geomagnetic activity summary:
geomagnetic field was quiet from Nov 10 to 15.
RWC Prague, Geophysical Institute Prague, Geomagnetic Dept,
Czech Republic
e-mail: geom(at)ig.cas.cz
_____________________________________________________________________
Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period of one solar rotation
Geomagnetic field during the following solar rotation should be:
quiet: Nov 20, 29 - 30, Dec 3, 7 - 11
mostly quiet: Nov 19, 21, 28, Dec 13
quiet to unsettled: Nov 18, 23, Dec 1 - 2, 4 - 6, 12
quiet to active: -
quiet to minor storm: Nov 22, 24 - 27
quiet to major storm: -
quiet to severe storm: -
mostly unsettled: -
unsettled to active: -
unsettled to minor storm: -
minor to major storm: -
Survey: quiet: Nov 9 - 14, 16
mostly quiet: Nov 15
quiet to unsettled: -
quiet to active: -
quiet to minor storm: -
quiet to major storm: -
quiet to severe storm: -
mostly unsettled: -
unsettled to active: -
unsettled to minor storm: -
minor to major storm: -
Notices:
The current configuration changes active regions on the sun greatly
reduces the reliability of predictions. This is especially true
for
the prediction of major disturbances.
High probability of changes in solar wind which may caused
changes in magnetosphere and ionosphere is expected about
Nov 21, (23,) 27, 29, Dec 1 - 2, 7, 11 - 13
Standard error of our forecasting method should be one day since
fourth day, but usually slightly better for day one to three.
Days in brackets refer to a lower probability of possible
activity enhancements depending on previous development
on the Sun.
F. K. Janda (OK1HH), Czech Propagation Interested Group
e-mail: ok1hh(at)rsys.cz
_____________________________________________________________________
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