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OK0NAG > SOLAR 13.11.11 14:41l 126 Lines 4906 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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:Issued: 2011 Nov 13 1236 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU317
UGEOA 30512 11113 1212/ 9930/
11132 20132 30132
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 13 Nov 2011 until 15 Nov
2011
PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Nov 2011 10CM FLUX: 166 / AP: 006
PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Nov 2011 10CM FLUX: 162 / AP: 003
PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Nov 2011 10CM FLUX: 165 / AP: 006
COMMENT: Catania sunspot groups 31 and 38 (NOAA ARs 1339 and 1344
respectively) are expected to continue producing C-class flares, with a
small chance for an isolated M-class flare. Due to the position of both
active regions close to the west solar limb, there is a also small
chance for a solar energetic particle event. Flaring activity will
probably increase due to a new sunspot group emerging in the north-east
quadrant, as well as to another active region that will soon appear from
behind the north-east limb. The latter region produced a strong limb
partial halo CME yesterday (first appearance in the LASCO C2 field of
view 18:36 UT, angular width 150 degrees, speed around 500-600 km/s).
Due to the behind the limb position of its source region, the CME is not
expected to be geoeffective. ACE and SOHO/CELIAS solar wind data are
currently available with long gaps, so it is difficult to classify solar
wind structures the Earth is embedded in. It is, however, clear that the
solar wind speed should be low (400-450 km/s) and the interplanetary
magnetic field magnitude should be average (4-6 nT). We expect quiet
geomagnetic conditions.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 112, BASED ON 09 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 11113 1212/ 12///
1//// 21690 3003/ 4//// 8//// 9////
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania
NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
UGEOR 30512 11113 1212/ 11/07 13109
10030 2//// 3//// 4422/ 50110 60006 35713 00000
10031 2//// 3//// 4532/ 50500 60045 43817 16100
10033 2//// 3//// 472// 50070 60001 30808 00000
10034 2//// 3//// 472// 50150 60003 10318 00000
10035 2//// 3//// 4331/ 50110 60010 11111 01000
10036 2//// 3//// 4321/ 50120 60002 11928 00000
10038 2//// 3//// 4432/ 50100 60014 33517 17101
10040 2//// 3//// 4422/ 50070 60009 32023 00000
10041 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50010 60004 11121 00000
99999
USSPS 32404 12099 14222 26008 37014 21303 27043 45519 37420 30006
32208 2/801 31010 35018 24415 32007 40513 21305 33010 41416 2/803
34009 10828 2/801 35005 33425 21403 36006 27517 2/801
USSPS 81202 13000 14532 13048 46119 37414 20012 42015 2/801 21012
10127 2/801 19007 40710 21308 26001 16407 0/101 14004 37713 11302
22029 35818 14512 24003 34025 11302 18009 33908 2/802 25010 27021
21302
UMAGF 30503 11113 1004/ 12066 1/008 22212 31000
UMAGF 31523 11113 ///// 1200/ 1/003 20022 31200
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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