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Date: Mon, 5 May 2008 22:09:38 -0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2008 May 05 2208 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
::::::::::CORRECTED COPY::::::::::
SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 05 May 2008
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 993 (S31E14)
remains a simple bipolar sunspot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominately at quiet to unsettled levels.
An isolated active period was observed at middle latitudes between
1500-1800Z. Solar wind velocities, as measured at the ACE
satellite, remain elevated at about 625 km/s. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for
isolated active periods on days 1 and 2 (06 and 07 May) due to the
high speed stream. By day 3 (08 May), geomagnetic conditions are
expected to be mostly quiet as the high speed stream abates.
III. Event Probabilities 06 May-08 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 May 68
Predicted 06 May-08 May 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 05 May 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 May 006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 May 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 May-08 May 008/010-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 May-08 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/10
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/30/10
Minor storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. For problems, contact:
mailto:pss.help@noaa.gov.
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