| |
OK0NAG > SOLAR 09.11.11 00:05l 277 Lines 9290 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
BID : 8BLOK0NAG00N
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
Path: IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<OK0PTU<OK0NAG
Sent: 111108/2203z @:OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU [TCP/IP BBS Praha Strahov] bcm2.01e-zia
X-Info: Prijato od 127.0.0.1 za pomoci SMTP gatewaye
X-barracuda-connect: sunkl.asu.cas.cz[147.231.106.1]
X-barracuda-apparent-source-ip: 147.231.106.1
Date: 8 Nov 2011 22:03:30 +0000
X-barracuda-spam-score: 1.34
X-asg-debug-id: 1320788236-03b3480de99f5d0001-dKRjYV
To: solar@eu
X-originalarrivaltime: 08 Nov 2011 22:03:29.0676 (UTC) FILETIME=[3F87F4C0:01CC9E62]
From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
X-barracuda-bbl-ip: nil
X-barracuda-spam-status: No, SCORE=1.34 using global scores of TAG_LEVEL=1000.0 QUARANTINE_LEVEL=1000.0 KILL_LEVEL=9.0 tests=HTML_MESSAGE, MIME_BASE64_TEXT, MIME_QP_LONG_LINE, MIME_QP_LONG_LINE_2
X-spam-flag: NO
X-spam-score: -0.196
X-barracuda-envelope-from: solar@sunkl.asu.cas.cz
X-barracuda-spam-report: Code version 3.2, rules version 3.2.2.79710Rule breakdown below pts rule name description---- ---------------------- --------------------------------------------------0.00 HTML_MESSAGE BODY: HTML included in message0.52 MIME_BASE64_TEXT RAW: Mes
sage text disguised using base64 encoding0.00 MIME_QP_LONG_LINE RAW: Quoted-printable line longer than 76 chars0.82 MIME_QP_LONG_LINE_2 RAW: Quoted-printable line longer than 76 chars
X-barracuda-url: http://147.231.105.98:8000/cgi-mod/mark.cgi
Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-barracuda-start-time: 1320788236
----boundary_374587_5b92d1d7-dd5e-4785-9811-724c415bd57e
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Nov 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1339 (N19W08) produced a
few low-level C-class events during the period. The region continued
to exhibit slow decay, both in area and spot count, as well as
magnetic complexity losing its Delta configuration. The other large
region on the disk, Region 1338 (S14W25) also is in slow decay, both
in area and magnetic complexity, and is now classified as a Beta
group. New region 1344 (S22W07) emerged on the disk early in the
period as a simple uni-polar spot group. Early in the period, a
filament eruption along a 25 degree channel was observed in SDO/AIA
imagery beginning at about 07/2232Z. LASCO C2 imagery first observed
a CME lifting off the NW limb at 07/2348Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate during the period (09 - 11 November) with a slight chance
for high activity (M5 or greater) from Region 1339. There is also a
slight chance for a proton flare from this region during the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated
high latitude minor storm periods. Solar wind speeds generally were
below 400 km/s while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field fluctuated between +/- 7 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels during day one and two of the period
(09 - 10 November). By day three (11 November), the field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated high
latitude active periods, as glancing blow effects from the 07
November CME are felt.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Nov 181
Predicted 09 Nov-11 Nov 180/180/175
90 Day Mean 08 Nov 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Nov 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Nov 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov 004/005-004/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/13
Minor storm 02/02/03
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/16
Minor storm 13/13/20
Major-severe storm 08/08/14
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
----boundary_374587_5b92d1d7-dd5e-4785-9811-724c415bd57e
Content-Type: text/html
Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64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----boundary_374587_5b92d1d7-dd5e-4785-9811-724c415bd57e--
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
