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OK0NAG > SOLAR 03.11.11 13:01l 101 Lines 3670 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Weekly Forecasts Bulletin
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Subject: Weekly Forecasts Bulletin
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_____________________________________________________________________
Solar-activity forecast for the period Nov 4 - 10, 2011
Activity level: mostly low to moderate
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 155-185 f.u.
Flares: weak (numerous), middle (1-6/period), large (0-3/period)
Relative sunspot number: in the range 120-170
Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch(at)asu.cas.cz
(RWC Prague)
_____________________________________________________________________
Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period Nov 4 to Nov 10, 2011
quiet: Nov 7 to 10
quiet to unsettled: Nov 4 and 6
unsettled: Nov 5
active: 0
minor storm: 0
major storm: 0
severe storm: 0
Geomagnetic activity summary:
geomagnetic field was quiet from Oct 27 to 30, quiet
to unsettled on Nov 2, unsettled on Oct 31 and Nov 1.
RWC Prague, Geophysical Institute Prague, Geomagnetic Dept,
Czech Republic
e-mail: geom(at)ig.cas.cz
_____________________________________________________________________
Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period of one solar rotation
Geomagnetic field during the following solar rotation should be:
quiet: Nov 9 - 10, 13, 15, 18 - 20
mostly quiet: Nov 6 - 7, 12, 16, 21, 24 - 25
quiet to unsettled: Nov 8, 14, 17, 23, 26, 29 - 30
quiet to active: Nov 11, 27 - 28
quiet to minor storm: Nov 4 - 5
quiet to major storm: Nov 22
quiet to severe storm: -
mostly unsettled: -
unsettled to active: -
unsettled to minor storm: -
minor to major storm: -
Survey: quiet: Oct 28 - 29
mostly quiet: Oct 27
quiet to unsettled: -
quiet to active: Oct 30 - 31
quiet to minor storm: -
quiet to major storm:
quiet to severe storm:
mostly unsettled: Nov 2
unsettled to active: Nov 1
unsettled to minor storm: -
minor to major storm: -
Notices:
High probability of changes in solar wind which may caused
changes in magnetosphere and ionosphere is expected about
Nov 4 - 5, (8,) 12 - 14, (16,) 21.
Standard error of our forecasting method should be one day since
fourth day, but usually slightly better for day one to three.
Days in brackets refer to a lower probability of possible
activity enhancements depending on previous development
on the Sun.
Petr kolman (OK1MGW), Czech Propagation Interested Group
e-mail: kolmanp(at)razdva.cz
_____________________________________________________________________
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