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OK0NAG > SOLAR 01.11.11 12:37l 108 Lines 4051 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: Monthly Ri Report
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# MONTHLY REPORT ON THE INTERNATIONAL SUNSPOT NUMBER #
# from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
Provisional International monthly mean Sunspot Number for
October 2011 : 88.0 (eighty-eight point zero)
Maximum : 136 on 21 // Minimum : 48 on 8
Provisional daily International Sunspot Numbers for October 2011 :
1.. 83 6.. 70 11.. 87 16..108 21..136 26.. 73 31.. 67
2.. 83 7.. 62 12..102 17..123 22..122 27.. 65
3.. 79 8.. 48 13..113 18..109 23.. 94 28.. 71
4.. 90 9.. 55 14..119 19.. 99 24.. 91 29.. 66
5.. 70 10.. 63 15..104 20..128 25.. 77 30.. 72
73 cooperating stations on November 1, 15 UT
Predictions of the monthly smoothed Sunspot Number using the last
provisional value, calculated for April 2011 : 41.8 (+-5%)
SM CM SM CM SM CM
2011 May 46 44 2011 Nov 73 74 2012 May 112 105
Jun 53 49 Dec 78 80 Jun 119 107
Jul 54 53 2012 Jan 83 84 Jul 127 109
Aug 58 58 Feb 89 89 Aug 133 111
Sep 63 64 Mar 96 94 Sep 139 112
Oct 68 69 Apr 103 100 Oct 145 113
SM : SIDC classical method : based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's
standard curves; the estimated error ranges from 7% (first month) to
35% (last month)
CM : Combined method : the combined method is a regression technique
coupling a dynamo-based estimator with Waldmeier's idea of standard
curves, due to K. Denkmayr.
ref. : K. Denkmayr, P. Cugnon, 1997 : "About Sunspot Number Medium-Term
Predictions", in "Solar-Terrestrial Prediction Workshop V", eds.
G. Heckman et al., Hiraiso Solar Terrestrial Research Center, Japan, 103
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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