| |
OK0NAG > SOLAR 31.10.11 00:06l 325 Lines 10955 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
BID : UALOK0NAG00Q
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
Path: IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<OK0PTU<OK0NAG
Sent: 111030/2205z @:OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU [TCP/IP BBS Praha Strahov] bcm2.01e-zia
X-Info: Prijato od 127.0.0.1 za pomoci SMTP gatewaye
X-barracuda-connect: sunkl.asu.cas.cz[147.231.106.1]
X-barracuda-apparent-source-ip: 147.231.106.1
Date: 30 Oct 2011 22:04:51 +0000
X-barracuda-spam-score: 1.34
X-asg-debug-id: 1320010791-03b3483259a5310001-dKRjYV
To: solar@eu
X-originalarrivaltime: 30 Oct 2011 22:04:54.0369 (UTC) FILETIME=[F44B5510:01CC974F]
From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
X-barracuda-bbl-ip: nil
X-barracuda-spam-status: No, SCORE=1.34 using global scores of TAG_LEVEL=1000.0 QUARANTINE_LEVEL=1000.0 KILL_LEVEL=9.0 tests=HTML_MESSAGE, MIME_BASE64_TEXT, MIME_QP_LONG_LINE, MIME_QP_LONG_LINE_2
X-spam-flag: NO
X-spam-score: -0.201
X-barracuda-envelope-from: solar@sunkl.asu.cas.cz
X-barracuda-spam-report: Code version 3.2, rules version 3.2.2.78858Rule breakdown below pts rule name description---- ---------------------- --------------------------------------------------0.00 HTML_MESSAGE BODY: HTML included in message0.52 MIME_BASE64_TEXT RAW: Mes
sage text disguised using base64 encoding0.00 MIME_QP_LONG_LINE RAW: Quoted-printable line longer than 76 chars0.82 MIME_QP_LONG_LINE_2 RAW: Quoted-printable line longer than 76 chars
X-barracuda-url: http://147.231.105.98:8000/cgi-mod/mark.cgi
Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-barracuda-start-time: 1320010791
----boundary_184001_5be8d16a-f14e-4752-8739-9812b82aa917
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Oct 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Oct 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was low. There were several C-class
flares during the past 24 hours. Most of these were from newly
emerging Region 1334 (N13E24) which is currently a C-type group with
area of about 70 millionths. Region 1330 (N08W35) continues to be
the largest group on the disk and managed to produce two C-class
flares. However, Region 1330 appears to be decreasing in sunspot
area. There continues to be indicators of a new region rotating
around the east limb with latitude around 15 degrees North. A CME
was observed in the LASCO C2 coronagraph beginning at about 0812Z
but was confirmed to be from the backside using STEREO imagery.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
generally low. There continues to be, however, a slight chance for
an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was initially quiet. An increase to unsettled
to active levels with some minor storm periods at high latitudes
occurred after 1003Z after a disturbance in the solar wind impacted
the magnetosphere. The disturbance was also seen at the ACE
spacecraft at about 0855Z: solar wind increased from around 280 km/s
to about 320 km/s, Bt from 3 nT up to about 6 nT, and density from
less than 1 p/cc up to about 6 p/cc. The solar wind parameters
continued to show somewhat elevated signatures for the remainder of
the period. There was also a solar sector boundary crossing on 29
October at about 2111Z from negative to positive polarity and the
presence of a positive sector was clearly indicated throughout the
interval. In addition, solar wind speed and temperature were showing
an increasing trend near the end of the interval. It appears that
the initial phase of the disturbance was related to the DSF/CME that
occurred on 26 October. However, it also appears that the expected
high speed stream is beginning to be evident in the solar wind
observations.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled for the next 24 hours (31 October) with a
chance for active periods as the high speed stream is expected to be
more clearly evident. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected for the
second day (01 November) and quiet levels are expected to
predominate on the third day (02 November).
III. Event Probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Oct 127
Predicted 31 Oct-02 Nov 130/130/125
90 Day Mean 30 Oct 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Oct 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Oct 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov 010/010-005/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/10/10
Minor storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 40/20/10
Minor storm 25/15/05
Major-severe storm 15/05/01
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
----boundary_184001_5be8d16a-f14e-4752-8739-9812b82aa917
Content-Type: text/html
Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64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----boundary_184001_5be8d16a-f14e-4752-8739-9812b82aa917--
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
