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OK0NAG > SOLAR 27.10.11 12:19l 101 Lines 3606 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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_____________________________________________________________________
Solar-activity forecast for the period Oct 28 - Nov 3, 2011
Activity level: very low to low
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a decrease in the range 130-95 f.u.
Flares: weak (4-12/day)
Relative sunspot number: in the range 100-50
Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch(at)asu.cas.cz
(RWC Prague)
_____________________________________________________________________
Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period Oct 28 to Nov 3, 2011
quiet: Oct 31 to Nov 3
quiet to unsettled: Oct 28 and 30
unsettled: Oct 29
active: 0
minor storm: 0
major storm: 0
severe storm: 0
Geomagnetic activity summary:
geomagnetic field was quiet from Oct 20 to 23 and 26,
active on Oct 24 and 25.
RWC Prague, Geophysical Institute Prague, Geomagnetic Dept,
Czech Republic
e-mail: geom(at)ig.cas.cz
_____________________________________________________________________
Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period of one solar rotation
Geomagnetic field during the following solar rotation should be:
quiet: Oct 31, Nov 9 - 10, 13, 15, 18 - 20
mostly quiet: Nov 2 - 3, 6 - 7, 12, 16, 21
quiet to unsettled: Oct 30, Nov 1, 8, 14, 17, 23
quiet to active: Nov 11
quiet to minor storm: Oct 28 - 29, Nov 4 - 5
quiet to major storm: Nov 22
quiet to severe storm: -
mostly unsettled: -
unsettled to active: -
unsettled to minor storm: -
minor to major storm: -
Survey: quiet: Oct 18 - 19, 22 - 23, 26
mostly quiet: Oct 20 - 21
quiet to unsettled: -
quiet to active: -
quiet to minor storm: -
quiet to major storm: Oct 24
quiet to severe storm: Oct 25
mostly unsettled: -
unsettled to active: -
unsettled to minor storm: -
minor to major storm: -
Notices:
High probability of changes in solar wind which may caused
changes in magnetosphere and ionosphere is expected about
Oct 28 - 29, Nov (2 - 3,) 4 - 5, (8,) 12 - 14, (16,) 21.
Standard error of our forecasting method should be one day since
fourth day, but usually slightly better for day one to three.
Days in brackets refer to a lower probability of possible
activity enhancements depending on previous development
on the Sun.
F. K. Janda (OK1HH), Czech Propagation Interested Group
e-mail: ok1hh(at)rsys.cz
_____________________________________________________________________
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