| |
OK0NAG > SOLAR 26.10.11 00:05l 305 Lines 10278 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
BID : PALOK0NAG00Q
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
Path: IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<OK0PTU<OK0NAG
Sent: 111025/2204z @:OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU [TCP/IP BBS Praha Strahov] bcm2.01e-zia
X-Info: Prijato od 127.0.0.1 za pomoci SMTP gatewaye
X-barracuda-connect: sunkl.asu.cas.cz[147.231.106.1]
X-barracuda-apparent-source-ip: 147.231.106.1
Date: 25 Oct 2011 22:04:06 +0000
X-barracuda-spam-score: 1.34
X-asg-debug-id: 1319578783-03b34832591c3a0001-dKRjYV
To: solar@eu
X-originalarrivaltime: 25 Oct 2011 22:04:04.0988 (UTC) FILETIME=[02CBA3C0:01CC9362]
From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
X-barracuda-bbl-ip: nil
X-barracuda-spam-status: No, SCORE=1.34 using global scores of TAG_LEVEL=1000.0 QUARANTINE_LEVEL=1000.0 KILL_LEVEL=9.0 tests=HTML_MESSAGE, MIME_BASE64_TEXT, MIME_QP_LONG_LINE, MIME_QP_LONG_LINE_2
X-spam-flag: NO
X-spam-score: -0.204
X-barracuda-envelope-from: solar@sunkl.asu.cas.cz
X-barracuda-spam-report: Code version 3.2, rules version 3.2.2.78392Rule breakdown below pts rule name description---- ---------------------- --------------------------------------------------0.00 HTML_MESSAGE BODY: HTML included in message0.52 MIME_BASE64_TEXT RAW: Mes
sage text disguised using base64 encoding0.00 MIME_QP_LONG_LINE RAW: Quoted-printable line longer than 76 chars0.82 MIME_QP_LONG_LINE_2 RAW: Quoted-printable line longer than 76 chars
X-barracuda-url: http://147.231.105.98:8000/cgi-mod/mark.cgi
Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-barracuda-start-time: 1319578783
----boundary_105381_1bd14d9d-419a-4556-af75-ab7c33c62dda
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Oct 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 298 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Oct 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels due to a single C1
x-ray event from Region 1330 (N08E31). Regions 1325 (N15E03), 1327
(S21W54) and 1330) indicated some decay in area. The remaining
regions were unchanged.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for M-class activity all three days (26 - 28
October). Regions 1324 (N12W26) and 1330 (N08E29) are the most
likely to produce moderate level activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to severe storm levels. The
period began with unsettled to minor storm levels. By 25/0000Z,
minor to major storm levels, with high latitude severe storm levels,
were observed. From 25/0300Z - 0900Z, active to major storm levels
predominated followed by quiet to active levels for the remainder of
the period. This increase in activity was likely associated with
effects following the arrival of CME activity, first observed on 22
October. Following the interplanetary shock observed at the ACE
spacecraft on 24/1748Z. ACE registered increases in wind speed,
temperature and density. Solar wind velocities increased from a
steady 350 km/s to about 525 km/s, and remained at that speed
throughout the period. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bt
increased to above 20 nT from about 24/2000Z through 25/1300Z and
gradually decreased to about 8 nT by the end of the period. The Bz
component of the IMF reached southward values of -20 nT from about
24/2000Z through 25/0000Z. The remainder of the period observed
mostly northward Bz.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active
periods on day one (26 October), due to lingering effects from the
CME that impacted Earth on 24 October. Mostly quiet conditions are
expected on day two (27 October). By day three (28 October), quiet
to unsettled levels are expected due to effects from a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Oct-28 Oct
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Oct 139
Predicted 26 Oct-28 Oct 140/140/135
90 Day Mean 25 Oct 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Oct 016/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Oct 028/040
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Oct-28 Oct 007/012-005/005-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Oct-28 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/05/15
Minor storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/10/20
Minor storm 15/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
----boundary_105381_1bd14d9d-419a-4556-af75-ab7c33c62dda
Content-Type: text/html
Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64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----boundary_105381_1bd14d9d-419a-4556-af75-ab7c33c62dda--
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
