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OK0NAG > SOLAR 22.10.11 13:54l 132 Lines 5190 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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:Issued: 2011 Oct 22 1251 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU295
UGEOA 30512 11022 1223/ 9930/
12222 20222 38222
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 22 Oct 2011 until 24 Oct
2011
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Oct 2011 10CM FLUX: 176 / AP: 006
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Oct 2011 10CM FLUX: 170 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 24 Oct 2011 10CM FLUX: 165 / AP: 017
COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to be active with risks of M flares
from a series of ARs close to the west limb, with warning conditions for
proton events. A M1 flare occurred on Oct. 22, peaking around 11:10 UT.
The event is still ongoing at the time of this writing. Being a long
duration event, with a weak type IV radio burst, it is likely to be
associated with a CME, which is confirmed by COR2 A beacon data.
Preliminary observations suggest as a source region either AR NOAA 1314
or 1319. Due to its location no geomagnetic effect is for now expected.
A filament eruption occurred on Oct. 22 around 02:00 UT. The elongated
filament was located west to the central meridian, in the northern
hemisphere. A CME was observed by LASCO and COR2A coronagraphs, and it
is likely to trigger active to minor storms conditions on Oct. 24, late
in the day. Quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected in between.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 119, BASED ON 09 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 11022 1223/ 21///
1//// 21680 3004/ 4//// 8//// 9////
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania
NOAA NOTE
21 1253 1300 1308 M1.3 55 V/2,II/1,IV/1
1319
END
UGEOR 30512 11022 1223/ 20/07 22112
10005 2//// 3//// 472// 50200 60002 46128 16400
10006 2//// 3//// 4422/ 50050 60009 35211 04200
10007 2//// 3//// 4552/ 50240 60018 45411 16410
10008 2//// 3//// 472// 50040 60001 34024 00000
10017 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50020 60008 30813 00000
10019 2//// 3//// 4622/ 50230 60028 15212 15100
10020 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50020 60008 22020 00000
10021 2//// 3//// 410// 50010 60001 36218 00000
10022 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50010 60004 42415 01000
10023 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50010 60002 30506 00000
10024 2//// 3//// 4311/ 50020 60003 13120 01000
10025 2//// 3//// 4321/ 50060 60008 18117 01000
99999
USSPS 32404 21071 16622 99018 47528 2/801 01001 37012 01202 02006
35727 2/801 04028 47011 21506 07001 32416 1/802 11030 13711 37522
12022 16515 51404 13002 43816 2/801 14004 11718 31405 15010 20722
21408 17006 33431 21304
USSPS 81202 21015 19432 99004 12117 21407 00027 14210 27547 02030
16715 21408 01010 21021 11409 03004 32730 2/805 98007 35025 2/801
92005 36010 21402 96004 43516 21406 95048 46513 44407 90018 46830
41302
USSPS 81202 22028 12532 03002 10618 11304 00011 12610 27528 02020
15507 21408 05018 17805 2/801 04002 34328 2/801 98004 36524 2/801
95006 47515 2/801 90012 47930 2/801
UMAGF 30503 11022 1004/ 21063 1/006 21110 31111
UMAGF 31523 11022 ///// 2100/ 1/004 23120 31011
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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